548
FXUS64 KBRO 171723
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will build further north
through the period as an upper-level trough over the Midwest digs
south into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a
cold front is expected to work its way south into Central Texas
Thursday, before stalling to the north of the CWA.

Recent model runs have trended downwards on rain chances Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons.  While ample surface moisture and
instability will be present to support isolated showers and thunders
along the sea breeze this afternoon and Thursday afternoon, drier
mid level flow will likely limit convection through the period. As
such, POPs will peak around 10-15% each afternoon, as convection
looks unlikely, but not impossible.

High temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to upper 90s
today and Thursday, though a few areas in the western portion of the
CWA may break 100 Thursday afternoon. Low temperatures are expected
to range from the mid 70s to low 80s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The mid-level ridge across the Four Corners late this week edges
further westward into the weekend as low pressure across the
central CONUS deepens and sinks south through Texas into early
next week. This will gradually increase rain chances each day
through the long term, beginning with increased heat of the day or
sea breeze activity Friday through Sunday, and culminate with
periods of showers and thunderstorms by Monday and Tuesday as
tropical moisture increases. NBM POPs range from 15 to 20 percent
Friday and Saturday, bump towards 20 to 30 percent on Sunday, and
top off near 40 to 50 percent Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
Friday and Saturday reach slightly above normal into the upper
90s, with more seasonal or even slightly below normal temperatures
Sunday through Tuesday due to increased cloud cover and rain
chances. Heat Indices may reach toward 109 or 110 degrees Sunday
and Monday due to the increasing humidity, still likely falling
shy of any Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites. The
latest satellite imagery reveals an uptick in cloud cover compared
to previous days across the region, although most sites are
reporting SCT to BKN skies. There is a low chance of isolated
showers/storms, but confidence is too low to warrant a mention in
the TAF at this time. Otherwise, southeast winds around 5 to 10
knots will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Today through Thursday...Favorable marine conditions are expected to
continue through the short term period. Surface high pressure will
remain over the Northern Gulf supporting light to moderate
southeasterly to southerly winds. These winds will continue to
support slight seas along the Lower Texas Coast.

Thursday Night through Tuesday...A weak pressure gradient is
expected late this week into next week across coastal waters, with
light to moderate southeasterly onshore flow and low seas. The
chance of showers and thunderstorms gradually increases into next
week, with winds and seas higher near any thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  80  95  79 /  10   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               95  76  95  75 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 97  79  98  79 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         97  77  98  76 /  10  20  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  82  89  82 /   0   0  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  78  92  77 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...22-Garcia