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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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000 FXUS64 KBRO 151117 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 617 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Broad 500 mb high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will generally be the dominant weather feature across the BRO CWFA during the period. Although dry weather is forecast across Deep South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and the adjacent lower Texas coastal waters, some very isolated convection cannot be ruled out for Tuesday as precipitable water values slowly increase to around 2 inches that day from a minimum of around 1.5 inches today. Meanwhile, near normal daytime highs and overnight lows are likely. Calculated heat index values indicate that a HEAT ADVISORY will not be needed today nor tomorrow. Thus, will mention the heat indices in a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A mid level ridge over the Southwest will allow a 500mb trough to dig south towards the end of the week, supporting a surface cold front dropping into Central Texas Thursday. The front looks to stall to the north of the BRO CWA and remain across Central Texas through the remainder of the period. Increased low-level moisture, weak forcing, and daytime instability will support increasing rain chances each afternoon from Thursday through Sunday. The best rain chances look to occur over the weekend when an amplifying shortwave moving through the western periphery of the trough increases forcing over Deep South Texas. Rain chances look to be around 15-20 Thursday and Friday afternoon increasing to 20-30% over the weekend. High temperatures look to range in the mid to upper 90s through the period, with western portions of the CWA occasionally reaching 100. Heat indices look to remain below Heat Advisory thresholds, topping out around 108-110 each afternoon. Low temperatures look to remain in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 No changes needed to the previous suite of TAFs. VFR will continue through the next 24 hours with light to moderate winds and mostly clear skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Today through Tuesday...Buoy 42020 reported south winds around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly over 2.5 feet with a period of 4 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. Benign marine conditions will occur along the Lower Texas Coast during the period, with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed. Tuesday night through Sunday...Surface high pressure looks to remain in place across the Northern Gulf through the period. This will continue to support light to moderate winds and slight seas through the period. A slight chance of rain returns towards the end of the week and continues over the weekend as a cold front looks to stall over Central Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 93 80 93 81 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 97 79 97 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 88 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 78 92 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$