854
FXUS64 KBRO 151722
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Broad 500 mb high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will generally
be the dominant weather feature across the BRO CWFA during the
period. Although dry weather is forecast across Deep South Texas,
the Rio Grande Valley, and the adjacent lower Texas coastal
waters, some very isolated convection cannot be ruled out for
Tuesday as precipitable water values slowly increase to around 2
inches that day from a minimum of around 1.5 inches today.

Meanwhile, near normal daytime highs and overnight lows are likely.
Calculated heat index values indicate that a HEAT ADVISORY will not
be needed today nor tomorrow. Thus, will mention the heat indices in
a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A mid level ridge over the Southwest will allow a 500mb trough to
dig south towards the end of the week, supporting a surface cold
front dropping into Central Texas Thursday. The front looks to
stall to the north of the BRO CWA and remain across Central Texas
through the remainder of the period. Increased low-level moisture,
weak forcing, and daytime instability will support increasing
rain chances each afternoon from Thursday through Sunday. The best
rain chances look to occur over the weekend when an amplifying
shortwave moving through the western periphery of the trough
increases forcing over Deep South Texas. Rain chances look to be
around 15-20 Thursday and Friday afternoon increasing to 20-30%
over the weekend.

High temperatures look to range in the mid to upper 90s through
the period, with western portions of the CWA occasionally reaching
100. Heat indices look to remain below Heat Advisory thresholds,
topping out around 108-110 each afternoon. Low temperatures look
to remain in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the next TAF
period. Winds will be from the south to southeast at 10 to 15 kts
until around sunset then drop to less than 10 kts. Wind speeds
will increase above 10 kts by late morning Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Today through Tuesday...Buoy 42020 reported south winds around 14
knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly over 2.5 feet
with a period of 4 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. Benign marine
conditions will occur along the Lower Texas Coast during the
period, with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are
not likely to be needed.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Surface high pressure looks to
remain in place across the Northern Gulf through the period. This
will continue to support light to moderate winds and slight seas
through the period. A slight chance of rain returns towards the
end of the week and continues over the weekend as a cold front
looks to stall over Central Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  93  81  94 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               76  95  76  95 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 79  97  80  97 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  97  78  97 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  88  82  88 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  92  79  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...05-EWX