793
FXUS64 KBRO 160519 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1219 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The subtropical ridge is dominant over the Gulf this afternoon.
High pressure at the surface has the low level from the south to
southeast and a warm, moist airmass is in place across the CWA.
The upper ridge is suppressing convection this afternoon. Little
change is expected during the short term. Southerly to
southeasterly flow will keep the warm, moist air in place and the
upper ridge will prevent any convection. Low temperatures will be
about what they were this morning and highs Tuesday will be
similar to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

An upper level ridge over the western U.S. will build well north
into Canada. This amplification will send a strong shortwave
trough south along on the western side of the main trough over the
Mississippi Valley reaching the base of the trough and the NW
Gulf of Mexico by Friday. A second shortwave trough will
amplify this feature farther southwest through Texas Sunday. At
the surface, a cold front will move into Central Texas Thursday
with the latest model suite maintaining this boundary over Texas
Friday and Saturday with a further nudge southwest through Texas
Sunday. Model trends increase rain chances Thursday through Sunday
as low to mid-level moisture, weak forcing and daytime
instability south of the front support low rain chances each
afternoon.

Model guidance maintains a steady state near normal temperature
range through the weekend with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s, with heat indices remaining below Heat Advisory
criteria. Low temperatures look to remain in the mid 70s to low
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period,
with a southeast breeze this afternoon to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Tonight through Monday Night...Surface high pressure over the US
southeast will provide favorable marine conditions through Monday
night. With the light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to
moderate seas, there are currently no expected adverse or hazardous
conditions expected.

Tuesday through Sunday...Surface high pressure to remain anchored
over the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday-Sunday. A weak to occasional
moderate pressure gradient supports light to moderate winds and
slight seas. Isolated showers/Thunderstorms Tuesday-Thursday
become scattered Friday-Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  93  80  93 /   0  10  10  20
HARLINGEN               77  94  76  94 /   0  10   0  20
MCALLEN                 80  97  79  98 /   0  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         79  97  78  97 /   0  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  88  82  88 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  92  78  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05-EWX
LONG TERM....05-EWX
AVIATION...56-Hallman