863
FXUS64 KBRO 171850
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
150 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An upper level trough will continue to translate across the Plains
tonight into tomorrow, sending a cold front southward toward Texas
Hill Country. The cold front is expected to stall well to the north
of our region, which will maintain near to slightly above normal
temperatures across Deep South Texas through the short term period.
Despite sufficient moisture content, lack of large scale forcing
should limit overall convective development late this evening and
tomorrow afternoon. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out along the sea breeze, but widespread activity is not
expected. Otherwise, some patchy fog may develop tonight and
tomorrow night across portions of the Northern Ranchlands and
dissipate by the mid morning hours.

Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will range from the mid
70s to low 80s. High temperatures will be slightly above normal
tomorrow afternoon with highs mostly in the 90s to around 100
degrees across the Upper RGV and the Rio Grande Plains.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A mid-level ridge centered over the Four Corners will begin to
traverse westward through the weekend in response to mid level
troughing deepening through the Central Plains. This will lead to
increasing moisture across Deep South Texas and thus rain chances
will increase, especially each afternoon along the sea breeze.
Best chances of rainfall will be the first part of next week and
chances rain increase to 40-50% for most locations by Tuesday and
Wednesday.


Temperatures will remain near normal through the period, though and
excess cloud cover and precipitation could limit daytime highs,
especially Monday through Wednesday. Heat indices will likely remain
below Heat Advisory criteria rising to between 105 to 109 degrees
each day.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites. The
latest satellite imagery reveals an uptick in cloud cover compared
to previous days across the region, although most sites are
reporting SCT to BKN skies. There is a low chance of isolated
showers/storms, but confidence is too low to warrant a mention in
the TAF at this time. Otherwise, southeast winds around 5 to 10
knots will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Tonight through Thursday night...Light to moderate southeast winds
and low seas will result in favorable marine conditions through the
period as surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico prevails.

Friday through Tuesday...Favorable conditions will continue on the
Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through the period with light to
moderate southeasterly onshore flow with low seas. The chance of
showers and thunderstorms increases into next week, which could
lead to locally enhanced winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  95  79  96 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               76  95  77  96 /   0  10   0  20
MCALLEN                 79  99  78  99 /  10  10   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  98  78  99 /  20  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  89  81  89 /   0  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  92  78  93 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...22-Garcia