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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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257 FXUS65 KBOU 061756 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1156 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near average temperatures on Saturday before a dip on Sunday. - Cooler temperatures and scattered storms are possible early Sunday morning until late afternoon across the region. - Lower thunderstorm chances and warmer next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 948 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Difficult to spot a single cloud in the sky this morning as subsident flow prevails over the region. Temperatures remain on track to climb into the low 90`s for the warmest spots around the Denver metro and plains. No changes to this evening`s precipitation potential - still anticipate that only the northeast corner of our plains have a real shot at any stronger storms, and it`s possible that much of the activity will be focused overnight with assistance from the incoming front. One highlight was issued this morning for South Park, where efficient mixing over the next few hours should allow for winds to pick up and produce gusts in the 25-30 mph this afternoon. Thus, a Red Flag Warning will now be in place from 2-8 pm. && .SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... Issued at 445 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Water vapor imagery reveals dry west-northwesterly flow over Colorado with a shortwave trough over the North Dakota/South Dakota border and another near Glacier National Park. Our forecast area will be under mostly zonal and dry flow today before the trough near Glacier NP arrives late tonight. Plenty of sunshine and downslope winds will result in high temperatures returning to the 90s across the urban corridor. Models had been forecasting a dryline to set up on the eastern edge of our CWA but the latest runs push this dryline farther east. That should keep the primary area of severe weather well to the east of our CWA. However, in Logan, Phillips, and Sedgwick Counties, there will be enough lingering moisture and elevated instability this evening that a strong to severe storm or two could form. The primary threats would be hail and strong wind gusts from these storms. A few light showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may form over the higher terrain and the northern plains south of the Cheyenne Ridge this afternoon. Showers and storms may increase in coverage this evening as QG ascent ahead of the trough arrives. A cold front/outflow boundary will move through our forecast area after midnight tonight. This will decrease temperatures and may initiate a few showers and storms. Gusty winds up to 35 mph can be expected with this front. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/... Issued at 445 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The shortwave trough now exiting Alberta will move across northeast Colorado early Sunday. Most of the QG forcing should be in the morning, but there`s a little cooling aloft which will likely combine with weak low level upslope to keep showers and thunderstorms going into the afternoon. The focus may initially be over the northeast plains, then shift to upslope driven showers by afternoon. There may be up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE briefly in the middle of the day, but with the cloud cover and wind structure the severe threat looks low. There could be a bit of a focus for convective development around the Cameron Peak burn area, though moisture availability is limited with precipitable water likely 0.5 to 0.75 inch and cells should be moving at least 10 mph. So there is a threat of heavy rain, but the flood threat should be limited. Previous forecast of scattered to likely PoPs during the day, decreasing from north to south overnight still looks good along with highs mostly in the 70s. On Monday, drier air is drifting in from the northwest along with a little subsidence/warming aloft. There`s probably still enough low level moisture for some diurnal showers/storms but they should be weak, and maybe confined to the east slopes of the Front Range and adjacent plains. Cell motions may be weak, but with low CAPES and less available moisture, we don`t think there`s much of a flood threat. Tuesday looks similar, with temperatures warming but still some low level moisture around. The upper level ridge over the western U.S. will slowly nudge eastward later this week into the weekend. This will bring a warming trend. Low level winds will be southeasterly, keeping some foothills convergence and low level moisture, so there will likely still be a little thunderstorm activity mainly over and near the foothills. The more aggressive scenarios with the eastward spread of the ridge could result in very limited thunderstorm activity by Friday along with near record temperatures (101 Friday and 100 Saturday and Sunday in Denver). Northwest flow over the ridge may delay this a little longer or keep us slightly cooler, but we`ll be on the edge of pretty hot air centered over the Great Basin. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/... Issued at 1153 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Favoring continued northerly winds this afternoon, despite some guidance suggesting a push of northwesterlies off the higher terrain. So far, that doesn`t appear to be materializing. An outflow boundary from convection in Kansas looks to produce a period of enhanced northeast flow this evening, before a cold front arrives shortly after midnight. CIGS 020-035 look likely to develop behind the cold front, with a possibility of a few showers. Better potential for a few thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, assuming the low stratus is able to dissipate early enough. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ214. && $$ UPDATE...Rodriguez SHORT TERM...Danielson LONG TERM...Gimmestad AVIATION...Rodriguez