351
FXUS65 KBOU 052353
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
553 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures on Saturday before a dip on Sunday.

- Cooler temperatures and scattered storms are possible early
  Sunday morning until late afternoon across the region.

- Lower precipitation chances for the plains next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

I don`t know about you but wow this weather has been amazing the
past few days. Low-80s for highs and just a few showers around, what
a fantastic stretch!

Flat cumulus across the region bodes well for decreasing rain
chances today and satellite is showing drier air punching in from
the north, along with some warming in the mid-levels. Temperatures
overnight will cool towards July averages owing to mostly clear
skies and the dry air in place.

On Saturday we do warm up nicely back towards the 90F mark with
slightly thicker mid-level heights and continued NW flow. Some late
day showers and thunderstorms, mainly confined to the far northeast
plains but with limited moisture during the day it looks spotty at
best

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

An upper level trough will continue to bring northwest flow to the
forecast area through Monday. Cross sections indicate lingering low
level moisture mainly east of the I-25 corridor just before the
cold front approaches. CAMs favor scattered thunderstorms
developing early Sunday morning into early afternoon mainly for
the northeast corner. Given the upper level support as the trough
axis slowly pushes east and MU CAPE values between 200-400 J/kg,
any thunderstorm should remain sub-severe producing small hail and
brief heavy rainfall. As the trough axis deepens by Sunday
afternoon, another round of scattered storms are likely for the
high country and urban corridor. PWATs remain between 0.50-0.70
inches and faster storm motion should keep a low threat of
flooding for the burn areas. It is possible the environment may
become too stable after the cold front pushes through and with
limited heating, not expecting any threat of severe weather.
Expect much cooler temperatures Sunday afternoon with the urban
corridor and plains drop between 72-79F. Additionally, the
mountains and valleys should drop near 60-74F.

Not many changes for next week`s forecast. Winds aloft decrease
significantly and mid-level relative humidity values show drier
air entering our CWA. Monday through Thursday in the long term
period will have isolated showers and storms with light rainfall
mainly for areas west of the Divide. Surface standardized
temperature anomalies display 2-3 degrees above normal starting
Thursday and Friday afternoon which could indicate the return of
mid 90s for the lower elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 537 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Southerly winds are
expected to be in place at all Denver area airports this evening
with some gusts up to 25 mph for APA and DEN. Tomorrow is
expected to bring a similar pattern to today`s with winds shifting
to the N/NE in the morning.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heavener
LONG TERM...AD
AVIATION...Bonner