Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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960 FXUS65 KBOU 051740 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1140 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few storms over the northeast plains through mid afternoon. - Near to below normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will persist Friday through early next week. - There will be a very small chance of strong to severe storms over Washington, Phillips, and Sedgwick Counties Saturday afternoon. - Best chance for showers and storms in the extended will be Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1016 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 What has been impressive this morning was an area of enhanced storm activity in eastern Washington County, east of Anton, that likely produced some small hail...at 830 AM...on July 5th. Lingering moisture continues to push through the NE plains this morning with light showers dropping a few hundredths of an inch of rain. GOES-16/17 is showing better drying aloft so the current forecast remains on track for less coverage this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain quite comfortable for early July standards. && .SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... Issued at 343 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 QG lift with slight elevated instability has kept scattered showers and a few storms going over the northeast corner of Colorado overnight. Models differ on the timing of this ending, but the back edge of the current cloud deck is currently in southeast Wyoming, so it may be mostly this morning, with drying in the afternoon. We`ll keep some PoPs in the afternoon, but show a decrease late in the day. Further west there will be slight moisture/instability and we`ll have isolated PoPs over the foothills late in the day, but it really may wind up being just like yesterday in the I-25 corridor and the mountains. There`s further drying gradually spreading from west to east overnight tonight, though there could still be some clouds and maybe a few showers clipping the northeast corner overnight as a shortwave that`s now over Alberta moves past. Forecast temperatures look good, with today about the same as yesterday and then warmer in most areas tonight as south winds develop on the plains and provide a bit more mixing, along with a little warming aloft. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Issued at 343 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 On Saturday, a shortwave trough will move through Wyoming and towards the WY/CO border by the evening. Over Colorado, there will be west to northwest flow throughout the troposphere which will lead to some downslope flow. This downslope flow will help to increase temperatures and the 90s have a good chance of returning to the Denver area. A dryline will set up in far eastern Colorado during the afternoon. The most likely location is that it extends from Holyoke to Burlington, CO. To the east of the dryline, most unstable CAPE will be around 2,000 j/kg and there will be 40 knots of deep layer shear. Therefore, a couple of strong to severe storms may form but they will primarily be just east of our CWA. Nonetheless, SPC has far northeast Colorado in a marginal risk and that makes sense since the dryline could end up being further west. The aforementioned shortwave trough will dominate the weather on Sunday across Colorado. A cold front associated with this trough will move through early Sunday morning and there could be a few light showers with this front. Northeast winds behind the front will increase low level upslope flow and add moisture to the area. These factors as well as the QG ascent from the trough will lead to scattered coverage of showers and storms Sunday afternoon. These storms do not appear they will be severe as conditions will likely be too stable. Otherwise, temperatures will be quite cool with highs not reaching above the upper 70s. A ridge within the northwest flow aloft will move over Colorado on Monday. High temperatures will warm slightly and the chance of showers and storms will decrease. An upper level ridge over the west coast of the US will begin moving eastward on Tuesday and through the rest of next week. Colorado will be under northerly flow aloft for a few days. High temperatures will increase each day and there will be isolated storms mainly across the higher terrain. Models have once again continued their trend of holding off the very hot temperatures for another 12 hours or so. But as I mentioned last night, the heat wave is still inevitable with next weekend looking like record high temperatures could occur. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/... Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Today - Tomorrow...VFR. Lighter winds continue today shifting towards the south this evening. Expecting a similar pattern tomorrow across the region. High confidence. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Heavener SHORT TERM...Gimmestad LONG TERM...Danielson AVIATION...Heavener