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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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617 FXUS65 KBOU 170337 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 937 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, with an uptick in storm intensity and some severe threat. - Temperatures cooling to below normal levels for Wednesday. - More typical summer weather for the latter half of this week with scattered afternoon showers and storms most days and near normal temperatures. && .UPDATE... Issued at 938 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 There is still isolated convection occurring this evening, mainly over the foothills and the I-70 corridor in the mountains. There are a few cells over the eastern plains. For the update, will adjust pops down for the rest of the evening, based on reality and high resolution model output. The increased atmospheric moisture and cooler temperatures are welcome. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Current mid-level water vapor imagery shows a plume of moisture rounding the ridge aloft, pushing into Colorado this afternoon. This has helped provide a considerable uptick in moisture compared to the last several days. ACARS soundings reflect this well with observed soundings showing a sufficient layer of mid-level moisture. Instability across the region is marginal (MLCAPE < 600 J/kg). So far this combined with 20-30 kts of shear has brought mainly showers and weak storms with the stronger storms containing small hail. For the rest of the afternoon, expect this activity to continue with gusty outflow winds, small hail, lightning being the main threats. Can`t rule out a stronger storm or two. Most showers/storms will diminish and exit to the east early this evening. Wednesday, the upper level ridge centers over the Four Corners region with Colorado on the eastern periphery in northerly flow aloft. Low level moisture increases from Tuesday with additional upslope flow combined with subtropical moisture. A weak disturbance moves through the flow to provide weak synoptic ascent. This environment will favor another day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon through the evening. Above normal moisture with precipitable water values above an inch will support localized heavy rainfall. The marginal instability (MLCAPE 800- 1800j/kg) and sufficient shear will support a few strong to severe storms. Temperatures are expected to be cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s across the I-25 corridor and plains. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/... Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The ridge across the western US widens some on Thursday. We`ll see QG descent become prominent over the region, with subsident flow helping lead to warming of ~5 degrees area-wide. PWAT values will drop closer to 0.80" for the urban corridor, only exceeding 1" in the far eastern plains, although surface moisture won`t be too bad with easterly low-level flow sustaining dewpoints in the 50`s much of the day east of a weak dryline in the eastern plains. It`s there that instability will be maximized, with MLCAPE values above 1,000 J/Kg. Resultant storm coverage will be less than previous days, with generally weaker storm coverage. Nonetheless, a few stronger to severe storms will remain possible across the eastern plains. Activity should get a boost on Friday as a weak shortwave traverses the north-central US plains, and moisture advection increases aloft. PWAT will climb to or above 1" across the I-25 corridor, although again the more favorable instability axis will be found across our eastern plains. Regardless, expect a slight increase in storm coverage and some higher potential for locally heavier rainfall with any stronger storms. The placement of the upper-level ridge will experience little chance as we head into the weekend, keeping our area under largely north/northwest flow aloft. Thus, the more anomalous heat will remain to our west, with near-normal temperatures expected to continue through the extended forecast period. No day looks entirely dry from Saturday onward, with afternoon showers/thunderstorms making a return each afternoon and just minor fluctuations in coverage. Storms will likely be most numerous across the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/... Issued at 631 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 I took out the Thunder and showers at the 00Z update based on Satellites pictures and area radars. Some of the models do show a bit more convection to get into the Denver Metro area later this evening, but none of it makes it to DIA. The winds have already gone to a south-southwesterly direction and looks like that will stay that "normal drainage pattern" direction overnight. There should be no ceiling issues. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Above normal moisture remains in the region Wednesday. Model soundings shower deeper moisture in place than Tuesday with precipitable water values 1-1.20" for the plains and .45-.65" for the high country. Some storms will be capable of locally heavy rain. Overall, the threat of flooding remains relatively low as storms should be outflow driven and moving along at 20-25 mph. There will be at least a limited threat of flash flooding for the 2020 burn scars given the uptick in moisture, as the locally stronger storms in the high country will be capable of producing a quick one half to three quarters inch of rain in 30 minutes. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......RJK SHORT TERM...Mensch LONG TERM....Rodriguez AVIATION.....RJK HYDROLOGY....Mensch/Rodriguez