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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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580 FXUS65 KBOU 142048 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 248 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory continues through 8 pm this evening. Not quite as hot on Monday but sill important to take steps to limit outdoor activity, find ways to cool off, and stay hydrated as much as possible. - Dry lightning threat and new fire starts possible early this evening. - Strong and gusty microburst winds possible this afternoon and evening. An isolated severe storm possible over the plains this evening. - Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Monday with a few severe storms possible over the plains. Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday. - More typical summer weather for the latter half of this week with scattered afternoon showers and storms, and temperatures averaging closer to normal. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday/... Issued at 247 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 A boundary exits over the plains and separates drier air to the west with moister air to the east where MLCAPE up to 1000 j/kg exist. Sct tstms may develop in the next few hours along this boundary from Briggsdale to Wiggins to Simla and then move ESE across the plains. Could see a brief landspout or two along this boundary as initial convection develops. In addition, there is a low threat of a an isold svr storm as well. Meanwhile, further west into the higher terrain, higher based showers and storms will continue with gusty winds possible and limited rainfall. On Mon, the upper level ridge will flatten some with an increase in westerly flow aloft. In addition, will continue to see an influx of mid level moisture. MLCAPE across the plains will be around 1000 j/kg by aftn. Overall, will see a good chance of showers and storms over the higher terrain with sct activity across the plains. With increasing mid level flow and some shear a few svr storms will be possible over the nern plains. As far as the heat, highs will be a few degrees cooler with readings in the mid to upper 90s across the plains. && .LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/... Issued at 247 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Monday evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms gradually exit/decrease across the mountains and plains with some containing gusty outflow winds. Tuesday, the region remains on the east periphery of the upper ridge. An upper trough over the Great Lakes gradually deepens to the northeast. Tuesday will feature the real first relief from the heat thanks to the another reinforcing cold front that pushes across the plains. Ensemble means show highs in the upper 80s to near 90 for the I-25 corridor and plains. A plume of above normal (100-140%) moisture remains over the region, but the cold front will provide additional support to bring moisture into the lower levels. Combined with marginal instability (MLCAPE < 1000j/kg), this will support an upward trend in shower/storm chances and coverage from the mountains eastward onto the plains. Drier air at the surface across areas of the lower elevations may continue the threat for gusty outflow winds from any convective showers/storms. Soundings still show a shallow inverted v profile with DCAPE values 900-1500j/kg. Wednesday looks similar with above normal moisture remaining intact across the region with temperatures cooling a few degrees from Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is still showing highs likely to be below normal. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop again in the afternoon. Thursday through the weekend, ensemble guidance shows a consensus on the upper level ridge retrograding west across the Great Basin while the aforementioned trough persists over the Great Lakes/Midwest region. Most solutions seem to put northeast Colorado on the edge of both features, within the northerly flow aloft on the east of the ridge. Ensemble means show slight warming closer to normal temperatures; however, there is potential for a few embedded waves to bring a day or two of cooler temperatures than the ens means. Each day will feature afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms with the higher chances over the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/... Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Winds will trend to more northerly 19z. Still expect sct high based showers to move across by 21z with mainly virga and brief gusty winds from 40 to 50 mph thru 01z. There could be some additional high based showers between 01z and 03z but wind speeds should be lower. Wind directions will be quite chaotic due to outflow from the showers but will keep them north thru 01z with a gradually shift to SSW by 03z. Winds may go more WSW after 08z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 There still be some threat of dry lightning early this evening with a Red Flag Warning mainly for the higher terrain until 9 pm. Elevated fire danger will continue on Monday, however the threat of dry lightning with storms will be lower. Winds outside of showers and storms will remain relatively light. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ211>218-238. Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ038>051. && $$ SHORT TERM...RPK LONG TERM...Mensch AVIATION...RPK FIRE WEATHER...RPK