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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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990 FXUS65 KBOU 150313 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 913 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory continues through 8 pm this evening. Not quite as hot on Monday but sill important to take steps to limit outdoor activity, find ways to cool off, and stay hydrated as much as possible. - Dry lightning threat and new fire starts possible early this evening. - Strong and gusty microburst winds possible this afternoon and evening. An isolated severe storm possible over the plains this evening. - Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Monday with a few severe storms possible over the plains. Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday. - More typical summer weather for the latter half of this week with scattered afternoon showers and storms, and temperatures averaging closer to normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Convection is rapidly diminishing this evening after several hours of fairly chaotic gust fronts and unorganized thunderstorms. Isolated showers will likely continue through late evening, mainly across our northern tier of counties, but potential for strong outflow gusts won`t be as high. Minimal changes to the forecast this evening. Heat Advisory and Red Flag Warning were both allowed to expire at the set times. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday/... Issued at 247 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 A boundary exits over the plains and separates drier air to the west with moister air to the east where MLCAPE up to 1000 j/kg exist. Sct tstms may develop in the next few hours along this boundary from Briggsdale to Wiggins to Simla and then move ESE across the plains. Could see a brief landspout or two along this boundary as initial convection develops. In addition, there is a low threat of a an isold svr storm as well. Meanwhile, further west into the higher terrain, higher based showers and storms will continue with gusty winds possible and limited rainfall. On Mon, the upper level ridge will flatten some with an increase in westerly flow aloft. In addition, will continue to see an influx of mid level moisture. MLCAPE across the plains will be around 1000 j/kg by aftn. Overall, will see a good chance of showers and storms over the higher terrain with sct activity across the plains. With increasing mid level flow and some shear a few svr storms will be possible over the nern plains. As far as the heat, highs will be a few degrees cooler with readings in the mid to upper 90s across the plains. && .LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/... Issued at 247 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Monday evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms gradually exit/decrease across the mountains and plains with some containing gusty outflow winds. Tuesday, the region remains on the east periphery of the upper ridge. An upper trough over the Great Lakes gradually deepens to the northeast. Tuesday will feature the real first relief from the heat thanks to the another reinforcing cold front that pushes across the plains. Ensemble means show highs in the upper 80s to near 90 for the I-25 corridor and plains. A plume of above normal (100-140%) moisture remains over the region, but the cold front will provide additional support to bring moisture into the lower levels. Combined with marginal instability (MLCAPE < 1000j/kg), this will support an upward trend in shower/storm chances and coverage from the mountains eastward onto the plains. Drier air at the surface across areas of the lower elevations may continue the threat for gusty outflow winds from any convective showers/storms. Soundings still show a shallow inverted v profile with DCAPE values 900-1500j/kg. Wednesday looks similar with above normal moisture remaining intact across the region with temperatures cooling a few degrees from Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is still showing highs likely to be below normal. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop again in the afternoon. Thursday through the weekend, ensemble guidance shows a consensus on the upper level ridge retrograding west across the Great Basin while the aforementioned trough persists over the Great Lakes/Midwest region. Most solutions seem to put northeast Colorado on the edge of both features, within the northerly flow aloft on the east of the ridge. Ensemble means show slight warming closer to normal temperatures; however, there is potential for a few embedded waves to bring a day or two of cooler temperatures than the ens means. Each day will feature afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms with the higher chances over the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/... Issued at 534 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions for all terminals through TAF period. Generally W/NW winds should prevail in Denver area this evening, although occasional VRB outflows up to 35 kt will be possible for the next 2-3 hrs. Overall however, convective coverage is diminishing, but still a few cells upstream over the higher terrain to contend with. Expect development of southwesterly drainage winds later this evening. Prevailing daytime winds mostly north Monday, with stronger and more numerous afternoon TSRA expected, mainly after 20-21Z, with gusty outflows once again possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 There still be some threat of dry lightning early this evening with a Red Flag Warning mainly for the higher terrain until 9 pm. Elevated fire danger will continue on Monday, however the threat of dry lightning with storms will be lower. Winds outside of showers and storms will remain relatively light. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Rodriguez SHORT TERM...RPK LONG TERM...Mensch AVIATION...Rodriguez FIRE WEATHER...RPK