![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
719 FXUS65 KBOU 151043 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 443 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Still hot today, but a few degrees cooler than this weekend. - Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms today with a couple severe storms possible over the plains. - Higher chance of showers and thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday, with an uptick in storm intensity and severe threat. Temperatures cooling to below normal levels for Wednesday. - More typical summer weather for the latter half of this week with scattered afternoon showers and storms most days. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Overnight low temperatures remain in the low to mid 70s across the urban corridor this morning, and weak showers remain over the mountains. These showers are expected to shift eastward over the plains resulting in a few sprinkles in the coming hours. Today is expected to be another hot day, but high temperatures are not expected to be in the running for breaking any records for the first time in a few days. 500 mb heights will begin to slightly fall and flow aloft is expected to turn to a more zonal pattern for today. 700 mb temperatures are looking to be quite a bit cooler than the previous few days and range from 11C-18C as opposed to the 21C temps seen the past few days. This will translate to surface temperatures also decreasing by a few degrees. Across the plains, high temperatures are expected to be in the high 90s, and the mountains are forecast to be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Mid-level moisture is expected to slightly increase again today, and upslope surface flow will develop this afternoon. This will increase chances for precipitation. Marginal instability is expected over the mountains that will be enough to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (~600 J/kg MLCAPE). These are expected to produce strong and gusty outflow winds, but mainly light rainfall. Dewpoints in the 60s and modest values of MLCAPE (~1400 J/kg) are expected across portions of the northeastern plains. Forecast soundings in these locations also indicate a shear profile that could allow for a few storms that develop to become severe. The SPC has the northeastern corner of Colorado in a slight risk for today with the main threat being severe winds from outflow-dominant storms. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/... Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Tuesday will feature more relief from the recent heat wave, with a reinforcing cold front arriving. This front is being pushed along by the upper level trough settling into the Great Lakes region this week, and actually has some relatively refreshing air behind it. In fact, by Wednesday temperatures have a high (80-90%) chance of being below normal across northeast Colorado as cooler air continues to build in across the Central Plains. At the same time, moisture levels will be increasing through a combination of low level moisture advection and continued mid/upper level moisture trapped under the upper level ridge that is slowly retrograding toward the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. This will result in higher coverage of showers and storms each day, and greater intensity as well given the increase in low level moisture and dewpoints east of the Rockies rising into the 50s to lower 60s. MLCAPE rises to 1000-1800 J/kg on the plains east of Denver Tuesday. SPC has areas roughly along/east of a Fort Morgan to Limon line in Slight Risk for severe storms - and this looks good. For Wednesday, the severe threat should shift farther west toward the I-25 Urban Corridor where the combination of best heating/low level moisture advection occurs. Again, MLCAPE should rise into the 1000-1800 J/kg range and sufficient deep layer shear exists for a few severe storms. The northeast plains could be more stable depending on any stratus development and exact amount of low level cooling. Overall, there`s not a whole lot of change in the weather pattern through Thursday and Friday as we stay in north/northwest flow aloft. An axis of low level moisture and instability would support scattered thunderstorms, and a daily threat of a couple severe storms in NNW flow aloft and low level easterly flow. Ensembles show a return of near normal temperatures (near 90) for the plains during this period but wouldn`t be surprised if we stay a couple degrees cooler in this pattern. There is now more certainty in the ensemble solutions for cooler weather next weekend, with temperatures several degrees below normal. Again, the greatest cooling will be over the plains while mountain areas should stay closer to normal being outside the influence of upslope flow. The low/mid level moisture profiles will keep daily chances of showers and storms in the forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/... Issued at 430 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Today`s concerns are afternoon convection resulting in gusty outflows across all TAF sites. Current SSW drainage winds are expected to transition to a northerly regime between the 15-18Z time frame. Chances for showers/thunderstorms increase around 20-21Z. Gusty outflows could result in wind gusts reaching 35-45 kts. Convective outflows will likely put a delay on the typical diurnal flow return time this evening, but SSW winds are expected once outflows settle down. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonner LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Bonner