835
FXUS65 KBOI 191538
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
938 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.DISCUSSION...Widespread smoke from area wildfires is creating
hazy skies and impacting air quality across the region, but
especially near Burns, OR. Hot temperatures and dry conditions
will continue through the weekend with intermittent pushes of
monsoon moisture bringing afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A
small chance exists this afternoon for showers and thunderstorms
over the central ID Mountains (<10% chance) and near the ID-NV
border (10-20% chance). Gusty outflow winds to 40 mph and
frequent lightning are the main threat with this convection. No
updates necessary to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoky with low VFR, local visibilities to MVFR/IFR.
High density altitude due to heat. Low confidence (<20% chance) in
thunderstorms over central ID mountains and along ID-NV border
this afternoon. Surface winds variable 5-10 kt, except W-NW
5-15 kt by Fri./21Z, gusts up to 25 kt near KBKE, KONO this
evening. Storms may produce gusty outflow winds up to 35kt.

KBOI...Smoky with low VFR. High density altitude due to heat.
Surface winds variable less than 5 kt, becoming NW 5-10 kt by
Fri/21Z.

Weekend Outlook...Continued smoky with reduced visibilities.
Isolated thunderstorms over central ID mountains and along
ID/NV border Sat afternoon, and over central OR and central ID
mountains Sun afternoon. Gusty erratic outflows and frequent
lightning in vicinity of storms.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Upper level ridge
will continue to strengthen over the area through the short
term with hot conditions. The hot conditions will support
unstable conditions, with isolated thunderstorms over central ID
mountains and along ID/NV border this afternoon. Excessive heat
warnings remain in effect. Temperatures will warm to near
record levels, around 10-15 degrees above normal by Sunday. A
shortwave off the CA coast will support increased chances of
thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, especially across eastern OR
as the system moves north along the WA/OR coast. Wildfire smoke
could take a few degrees off forecast guidance, but the current
forecast used bias corrected temperatures for the past 10 days
to account for recent wildfire smoke trends.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Hot and smoky conditions
to continue over the long term, with Monday being the warmest
day of the period. The aforementioned shortwave on Sunday
afternoon will slowly move across southwest Idaho on Monday
afternoon, bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lower
valleys will see near record high temperatures of 104 to 108 on
Monday, however smoke may keep temperatures a few degrees below
forecast depending on how thick the smoke is. Slightly cooler
temperatures for the remainder of the week as the flow turns
more west-southwesterly with the influence of a upper level low
over western Canada. Monsoonal moisture will keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday over the higher
terrain.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT Monday night
     IDZ012-014-033.
     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight MDT Monday night
     IDZ015-016-029-030.
OR...Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ Monday
     night ORZ063-064.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Monday ORZ061.
     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Monday
     ORZ062.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SA
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....KA