800
FXUS65 KBOI 150207
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
807 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.DISCUSSION...So far this evening, thunderstorms have been
limited due to smoke from area fires and clouds from yesterday`s
storms inhibiting convective initiation. A few thunderstorms
developed in northwest Harney County and along the Idaho/Nevada
border, with less than five cloud-to-ground strikes recorded.

A large area of thunderstorms associated with deeper moisture
ahead of a shortwave across northeast Nevada is expected to move
into Owyhee and Twin Falls counties before 9 PM MDT tonight.
Most of these storms are initiating off an outflow boundary
moving quickly north, which will likely drive storm activity
through midnight. Stronger storms could produce lightning and
wind gusts up to 55 MPH. High-resolution models have
consistently shown these storms diminishing by 06z before
reaching the valley.

This evening, sprinkles have been reported with showers across
Malheur County, along with wind gusts up to 40 MPH. These
showers will move northeast through the Treasure Valley this
evening into early Monday morning, making it possible for the
valley to see a trace of rain tonight. Thunderstorms are again
possible Monday afternoon along the Nevada border.

Westerly flow will bring smoke into the lower valleys of
eastern Oregon tonight and potentially into the Treasure Valley
by Monday morning. The current forecast covers this well, so no
updates are needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday through Sunday...Thunderstorms along the
Idaho/Nevada border this evening are expected to remain south
the of Snake River Plain. Expect gusty and erratic wind gusts
of 45 to 55 kt near thunderstorms. Smoke from wildfires will
likely affect KBNO, KONO and KEUL late tonight through Monday
Morning. High density altitude due to hot daytime temperatures.
Light winds: 5-15kt. Winds aloft W to NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...Mostly VFR. Continued hazy from area wild fires.
Visibility below 6 miles at times Monday morning with improve by
late morning/early afternoon. High density altitude due to hot
daytime temperatures. Light winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Mid/high level
monsoon moisture currently over our CWA is expected to develop
isolated to scattered thunderstorms (20 to 40 percent areal
coverage) in eastern Oregon and in Idaho south of the Snake
River later this afternoon and evening. Radar is already
showing light pcpn echoes although little if any rain has
reached the ground. More echoes are in nw Nevada closer to a
vort center in western Nevada, so southern Harney and Malheur
Counties should be the areas in our CWA most likely to have
thunderstorms. Outflow winds may affect the Falls and Cow Valley
fires farther north in eastern Oregon. Clouds and smoke have
held temps down today but satellite shows at least partial
clearing approaching from the south, so hot weather may still
occur before sunset. Our Excessive Heat Warning and Heat
Advisory will therefore continue until midnight MDT tonight in
the zones listed below.

LONG TERM...The monsoon moisture will exit east on Monday and
temps will lower a few degrees as the hot upper high center
moves eastward to the southern Rockies. Unfortunately, latest
models bring a short wave trough from the Pacific toward the
northern California coast where it will pick up a weak low
waiting there. This trough is forecast to move northeast through
OR late Tuesday through midday Wednesday and produce more
thunderstorms in eastern Oregon as it moves by. The situation
looks especially nasty for central and western Oregon but even
Harney and Malheur Counties will probably be affected.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight IDZ012.
     Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight IDZ423-426.
     Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight IDZ033.
OR...Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight ORZ064.
     Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight
     ORZ636-637.
     Heat Advisory until midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight
     ORZ062-063.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC