523
FXUS65 KBOI 151601
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1001 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...Current forecast is in good shape with no heat
or fire weather headlines for the moment. Temps should stay a
little cooler than last week with the upper high centered over
the southern Rockies. Later this week the high will shift
westward again to the Great Basin and also build northward
into our area, and we will get very hot again, with Sunday
the hottest day according to latest models. No updates.


&&

.AVIATION...Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon generally
south of Burns/OR to Mountain Home to Twin Falls. Expect wind
gusts of 45 to 55 kt near thunderstorms. Smoke from wildfires
may affect KBNO, KONO, KEUL, and KBOI this morning, continuing
at KBNO this afternoon. High density altitude due to hot
daytime temperatures. Light winds: 5-15kt. Winds aloft W to
NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...Mostly VFR. Continued hazy/smoky from area wildfires.
High density altitude due to hot daytime temperatures. Light
winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...A briefly
flattened upper ridge will bring most sites the `coolest` day
in the past week and for the week ahead. That said high
temperatures today will still run about 5 degrees above normal
and a few sites along the OR/ID border could still reach 100F.
A more westerly flow at mid-levels will contain deeper monsoon
moisture and thus shower/thunderstorm threat to SE Oregon and
areas along the ID/NV border. A low chance (15%) of thunderstorms
also in the eastern Boise mountains this afternoon. Tuesday
will see the upper high begin to rebound as a weak trough tracks
north along the coast. The accompanying moisture and lift
accompanying this trough will support a 20% chance of showers
and thunderstorms over SE Oregon Tuesday into Tuesday night.
During the day/evening gusty winds will be the main threat from
thunderstorms. The low chance of showers/storms shifts into the
mountains of SW Idaho Wednesday as the trough tracks northeastward
through WA. While Tuesday and Wednesday will see a warming air
mass, clouds and smoke could limit it from reaching full potential,
especially across SE Oregon. For this, have held off on heat hazard
products as Wednesday`s temperatures are borderline.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...A strong upper level ridge
will continue to dominate our long term forecast. The center of
the high will move slowly from just west of the Four Corners
region into Nevada from Thursday to Monday. Heights over our
area will increase, and this generally means increasing
temperatures. Clouds/smoke can sometimes change that, however.
After a chance of storms Thursday south of the Snake River in
Idaho and perhaps in the eastern Boise Mountains, the area
should be dry and relatively cloud free through the remainder of
the long term. This will result in an extended period of
temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal, meaning another period
of extreme heat.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....LC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SP