881
FXUS65 KBOI 162043
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
243 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Showers
and and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening in
Harney County as a strong short wave trough passes by to the
northwest. Activity will extend briefly into southern Malheur
County to the Owyhee Mountains in Idaho. On Wednesday the trough
will be in WA and focus for thunderstorms will shift to
southern Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties as monsoon moisture
comes in from the south. Similar conditions expected Thursday
afternoon. Temperatures will continue to slowly rise as the hot
upper high in the southern Rockies shifts slowly westward and
then amplifies northward toward our area. Excessive Heat
Advisory remains in effect beginning Thursday in zones listed
below.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...An upper level ridge
centered over the Four Corners region will build northwest
into Nevada over the long term period. The ridge axis will
be located over our area Saturday through Monday, bringing
us another extended period of extreme heat. Temperatures may
approach or exceed record highs several days, with the hottest
temperatures over the weekend into Monday. Limited moisture will
bring a slight chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain
of southern Idaho on Friday. A weak upper level trough will move
along the periphery of the upper level ridge into the Pacific
Northwest on Sunday, which will also bring a slight chance of
thunderstorms. By Tuesday, the ridge may begin to break down and
bring slightly cooler temperatures and an additional threat of
thunderstorms. But confidence is low and the Excessive Heat
Watch has been extended into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke continuing over
most of the area especially near KMYL/KONO/KBNO. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds through
this evening in SE Oregon, Isolated thunderstorms extending
as far east as Owyhee County/ID. Oregon storms will move
northeast through the evening while Idaho should dissipate by
sunset. High density altitude due to hot daytime temperatures.
Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less, except gusts to 50 kt
near showers/storms. Winds aloft variable 5-15 kt.

KBOI...Mostly VFR. Smoke briefly reducing visibility to near
6 miles with thicker smoke staying northwest of KBOI. High
density altitude due to hot daytime temperatures. NW winds
6-12 kt with gusts to 16 kt until 17/01Z then light winds.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening IDZ012-014-016-030-033.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday IDZ426.
OR...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening ORZ063-064.
     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening ORZ636.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....LC