008
FXUS65 KBOI 171609
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1009 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough lifting north through Oregon
is helping to initiate isolated showers and thunderstorms across
southeast Oregon this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will
expand into southwest Idaho this afternoon, especially along the
higher terrain near the Nevada border. Moisture is limited and
most storms will produce little rainfall, adding to fire weather
concerns. Storms will also be capable of producing gusty winds
due to the very dry and hot near surface conditions. Wildfire
smoke will persist today, worst in southeast Oregon near the
Falls Fire. In general, the smoke will do little to reduce
temperatures, and highs will increase a few degrees from
yesterday as the upper level ridge centered over the Four
Corners amplifies. Update was sent this morning to increase
shower and thunderstorm coverage, otherwise no updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke continues over most of the area, especially
near KBNO, locally reducing visibilities. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds will occur
again today, with the best chance near KBKE/KTWF/KJER. High
density altitude due to hot daytime temperatures. Surface winds:
variable 10 kt or less, becoming NW to SW 5-15 kt this
afternoon. Gusts to 50 kt near showers/storms are possible.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 10-15 kt.

KBOI...Mainly VFR. Smoke may reduce visibility below 6 miles,
but this is not likely. High density altitude due to hot daytime
temperatures. Light SE winds through 20Z, then NW 6-12 kt with
gusts to 16 kt. Gusts to 30 kt from thunderstorm outflow
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...A shortwave trough
will move northeast from western OR to the ID Panhandle today,
helping to initiate additional showers and thunderstorms. The
best chance for storms will be in southeast OR and from eastern
Owyhee County east into the western Magic Valley. Storms will
continue into the evening as they move east and out of the area
by midnight. Gusts 40-60 mph are possible. Storms are forecast
again Thursday, but only from eastern Owyhee County into the
western Magic Valley where there is expected to be sufficient
moisture. An upper level ridge to our southeast will build back
toward the PacNW through Friday night. As it does, temperatures
will increase, and an Excessive Heat Watch continues from Thu
through the long term period. Smoke will remain over the area.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The large and hot
upper level ridge remains centered over the area through
Tuesday, perhaps shifting slightly east Wednesday. This will
keep our temperatures well above normal, and records will likely
be broken. The chance of showers and thunderstorms remains low,
but not zero. Models continue to indicate the approach of an
upper level trough late in the long term period, but there is
little agreement and confidence on timing/location is low.
Smoke should continue to be an issue through the long term
period.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening
     IDZ401-402-423-424-426.
     Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening IDZ012-014-016-030-033.
OR...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening ORZ063-064.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...ST
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP