Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
862 FXUS65 KBOI 010915 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 315 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...Slightly cooler than normal temperatures today through Wednesday night as an upper trough remains over the northern Intermountain Region. Limited moisture but significant instability will lead to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon in the central Idaho Mountains and eastern part of the Boise Mountains, and isolated weaker thunderstorms in and near the Owyhee Mountains. The stronger northern storms may have small hail and wind gusts to 40 mph. Moisture will shift east tonight and the trough will weaken slightly Tuesday. But a short wave trough off the BC coast will strengthen the main trough again Wednesday. A dry surface cold front will pass through our zones Wednesday with only a slight lowering of daytime temperatures, but west/ northwest winds will increase Wednesday afternoon to 15-30 mph over open terrain. Winds will decrease Wednesday evening and with clear skies and dry air, nighttime lows will dip to to 40s and 50s in the valleys and 30s to mid 40s in the mountains and higher basins. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Dry northwest flow will continue Thursday through at least Saturday as our area remains between an upper level trough over the Northern Plains and a strong upper level ridge centered along the California coast. This will bring dry and breezy conditions. Temperatures will also trend upward as the ridge gradually builds inland, rising from near normal on Thursday to around 10 degrees above normal on Saturday, which translates to around 100 degrees for the lower valleys. The main uncertainty after Saturday is how quickly the upper level ridge moves overhead. Very hot temperatures are likely as the ridge moves inland, with at least a 50% chance of highs 100F or warmer each day in the lower valleys Sunday into the following week, and a 5-15% chance of highs 110F or warmer. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Mostly clear this morning, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon over the higher terrain south of the Snake River as well as near KMYL. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 early this morning, increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt after 15Z/Mon. Gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15- 25 kt. KBOI...VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds W-NW 5-10 kt this morning, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt this afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....ST AVIATION.....ST