Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
491 FXUS65 KBOI 041525 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 925 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .DISCUSSION...Sunny skies with near-normal temperatures today. It will begin to heat up tomorrow, and continue to get hotter with time. An Excessive Heat Watch remains in effect for much of the area, beginning Saturday for SE Oregon, the Lower Treasure Valley of ID, and the Owyhees. The watch begins Monday for the lower elevations in Idaho that did not start Saturday. This is all handled well by the current forecast, and no changes will be made at this time. && .AVIATION...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt becoming mainly NW 6-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt after 18Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR under clear skies. Variable winds to 6 kt becoming NW 5-15 kt after 18Z. Weekend Outlook...VFR under mostly clear skies. High density altitude due to hot temperatures. Variable winds less than 10 kt during the late evenings through mornings, and generally NW 5-15 kt with gusts of 15-25 kt during the afternoons and early evenings. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...Dry northwest flow aloft will persist through the short term as a strong upper level ridge remains anchored to the West Coast and upper level troughing continues over the Northern Plains. The upper level ridge will very gradually build inland into the weekend, bringing several degrees of warming each day. Highs today will be near normal under sunny skies. By Saturday, lower elevations will see highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees, warmest in southeast Oregon and far southwest Idaho which will be closest to the ridge axis. The heat will continue to build during the long term period. Winds today will be lighter than yesterday but still locally breezy with gusts 15-25 mph southeast of Boise. Winds will increase Friday and Saturday as systems pass well to our north with afternoon gusts 20-35 mph, strongest in the Magic Valley. This will combine with very dry conditions to create elevated fire weather concerns. LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Models remain consistent with the strength and eastward progression of a large intense high pressure ridge that will deliver dry conditions and a prolonged heat wave across the region. The hottest temperatures coincide with the ridge axis, which targets Oregon early next week then shifts into Idaho by Monday or Tuesday. High temperatures trend slightly hotter each day, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday. Record or near record temperatures are likely at many locations. The models are indicating some limited moisture moving up from the the south as the ridge axis shifts to the east by Wednesday, but not enough to mention any showers or thunderstorms at this time. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon IDZ012-029. Fire Weather Watch Friday evening IDZ424-426. Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon IDZ014>016-030-033. OR...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon ORZ061>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION.....SP SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....BW