Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
513 FXUS65 KBOI 042007 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 207 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Dry and getting hot. The Excessive Heat Watch will be maintained this afternoon with no changes. The models are consistent with their depiction of an extreme heat event beginning Saturday and extending deep into next week. Temps Friday will be around 5 degrees above normal, but will be closer to 10 above normal Saturday. There`s roughly a 60% chance of getting to 100 in Ontario Saturday, and around a 30% chance in Caldwell/Nampa/Meridian/Boise/Mountain Home. Breezy conditions will develop mainly south and east of Mountain Home tomorrow afternoon/evening, and again and even stronger Saturday afternoon. This, along with low RH values, has resulted in the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch (see the fire weather watch for details). So please be careful with fireworks - any fires that get started tonight will have an above-normal chance to really get going tomorrow and into the weekend. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Temps will remain hot and get hotter through the long term period. The latest forecast calls for readings above 100 in lower elevations Monday through Thursday, with Wed and Thu expected top be the hottest days. Records will be set through this period in many locations, and all-time records may be reached. The all-time record for Boise, for example, is 111. The latest forecast for Wed is 108, but there`s a 40% chance of above 110 according to the NBM. Moisture will eventually work its way around the west side of the ridge and into our area next week, but uncertainty in timing is high. Cloud cover associated with this moisture is the main factor bringing uncertainty to the temperature forecast, as the models are very consistent with the overall pattern. && .AVIATION...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds: NW 6-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR under clear skies. NW 5-15 kt, becoming variable less than 6 kt after 05/05Z. Weekend Outlook...VFR under mostly clear skies. High density altitude due to hot temperatures. Variable winds less than 10 kt during the late evenings through mornings, and generally NW 5-15 kt with gusts of 15-25 kt during the afternoons and early evenings. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon IDZ012-029. Fire Weather Watch Friday evening IDZ424-426. Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon IDZ014>016-030-033. OR...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon ORZ061>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM....SP AVIATION.....SP