587
FXUS64 KBMX 131118
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
618 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024

The big weather story for central Alabama in the foreseeable
future will be the heat. An upper level ridge builds into the
southeast states, which will help push high temperatures well into
the 90s and close to triple digits over the weekend. Initially,
dewpoints should be low enough today so that heat indices will
stay below Heat Advisory criteria. However, dewpoints start
creeping up on Sunday, and we will be borderline Advisory
criteria. Will give things another model run or two to gain more
confidence, before pulling the trigger on an Advisory for Sunday.
The slow ramp up in dewpoints will also mean a similarly slow
ramp up in convective coverage. Highest POPs over the weekend will
be in the far south, which could see some seabreeze initiated
storms in the late afternoons.

/61/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024

Low amplitude upper-level flow will stretch across the CONUS at
the beginning of the period featuring a ridge across the West and
weak troughing across the East. However, low-level ridging will
remain positioned across the Southeast where an ongoing period of
above-average temperatures supports expanding drought across the
Tennessee Valley. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s are
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Making matters worse, mean low-level
flow will favor a southwesterly direction allowing for increasing
boundary layer moisture. PWs will rise toward 2.0" with dewpoints
in the low 70s. Thus, daytime heat index values will likely
meet/exceed advisory criteria. Our saving grace will be the
increasing chance for afternoon convection owing to increasing
moisture/instability. Furthermore, convective coverage could be
enhanced by the presence of a subtle upper-level low (barotropic
instability) progged near the ArkLaMiss Monday and Tuesday. PoPs
were increased a bit, but still remain below the "likely" category
until confidence increases that we`ll see meaningful coverage.

Temperatures begin a slow (and merciful) decrease mid to late next
week in association with a more prominent mid- to upper-level trough
progged to advance across the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. This
will feature embedded shortwaves that will swing closer to our
region on Thursday as the pattern aloft becomes more amplified.
Meanwhile, moisture values will increase a bit more Wednesday,
generally ahead of an associated front that approaches the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday. With the aid of synoptic forcing, convective
rain chances are 60-70% for Wed/Thu, and hopefully this will provide
beneficial rains to the forecast area. Rain chances remain elevated
along the progressing front into Friday, with drier air moving into
the area across the north. It doesn`t sound like much, but there
could be enough mid-level flow (around 20-25 kts) for a few stronger
storms on these days as well, should other mesoscale factors work
out.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024

Still essentially a wind forecast across central Alabama TAF sites
through the next 24 hours. Patches of mid- to high-level clouds
(all above 12k feet) may occasionally drift across the area, and
there will be a period of cumulus development from late morning to
late afternoon. Seabreeze convection to our south is not expected
to impact central Alabama terminals. VFR conditions to continue.

Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN UFN due to missing ceilings.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and dry conditions will remain in place through the weekend.
Min RHs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 30 to 35 percent
range, though winds should remain generally light to calm. Chances
of isolated showers and storms return on Sunday, with a more
humid air mass returning next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     97  71  98  72 /   0   0  10  10
Anniston    96  73  97  73 /   0   0  20  10
Birmingham  97  76  98  76 /   0   0  20  10
Tuscaloosa  98  74  98  74 /  10   0  20  10
Calera      97  74  98  75 /   0   0  20  10
Auburn      97  74  97  75 /  10  10  20  10
Montgomery  99  74  99  75 /  10  10  30  10
Troy        98  74  98  74 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION.../61/