517
FXUS64 KBMX 131742
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024

The heat has returned across Central Alabama, thanks to a building
upper level ridge over the Florida Big Bend. Most locations are
already observing low to mid 90s as of midday. We`re well on our
way to the upper 90s areawide, and would not be surprised to see a
few spots hit 100 before all is said and done. Slowly but surely,
we`re introducing a little bit more moisture both at the surface
and aloft. Looking back at the 12z sounding from the past couple
of days, you can certainly see the amount of dry air aloft has
been shrinking, especially between the 700-500mb levels. With
additional moisture and some lift caused by a weak shortwave
moving off to our north, isolated showers and perhaps a storm
can`t be ruled out this afternoon. I`ve gone ahead and added in a
slight chance PoP across the northern tier of counties, as well as
across the far south, where low-level moisture is greatest. Heat
indices are expected below criteria, but will still rise into the
100-103 degree range.

Following a calm and mostly clear night with lows in the 70s, the
heat will return once again during the day on Sunday. One
difference will be the return of higher dewpoints and humidity as
low-level flow becomes southwesterly over the region. As highs top
out in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees, we`ll be very close to
Heat Advisory criteria, especially in the urban heat islands and
more locations along and south of the I-85 corridor. For now, will
opt to hold off on a Heat Advisory, but that could change if
higher dewpoint trends are realized. Regardless, folks should
always take the proper precautions to prevent heat related
illness, especially with prolonged heat expected to last into
early next week. Rain chances will be a tad higher tomorrow
afternoon due to the moisture increase and presence of a weak
upper shortwave drifting off to our northwest. Scattered
convection will be possible across the far southwest and southern
counties with isolated development elsewhere.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024

Low amplitude upper-level flow will stretch across the CONUS at
the beginning of the period featuring a ridge across the West and
weak troughing across the East. However, low-level ridging will
remain positioned across the Southeast where an ongoing period of
above-average temperatures supports expanding drought across the
Tennessee Valley. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s are
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Making matters worse, mean low-level
flow will favor a southwesterly direction allowing for increasing
boundary layer moisture. PWs will rise toward 2.0" with dewpoints
in the low 70s. Thus, daytime heat index values will likely
meet/exceed advisory criteria. Our saving grace will be the
increasing chance for afternoon convection owing to increasing
moisture/instability. Furthermore, convective coverage could be
enhanced by the presence of a subtle upper-level low (barotropic
instability) progged near the ArkLaMiss Monday and Tuesday. PoPs
were increased a bit, but still remain below the "likely" category
until confidence increases that we`ll see meaningful coverage.

Temperatures begin a slow (and merciful) decrease mid to late next
week in association with a more prominent mid- to upper-level trough
progged to advance across the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. This
will feature embedded shortwaves that will swing closer to our
region on Thursday as the pattern aloft becomes more amplified.
Meanwhile, moisture values will increase a bit more Wednesday,
generally ahead of an associated front that approaches the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday. With the aid of synoptic forcing, convective
rain chances are 60-70% for Wed/Thu, and hopefully this will provide
beneficial rains to the forecast area. Rain chances remain elevated
along the progressing front into Friday, with drier air moving into
the area across the north. It doesn`t sound like much, but there
could be enough mid-level flow (around 20-25 kts) for a few stronger
storms on these days as well, should other mesoscale factors work
out.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated
showers with a few storms aren`t out of the question, but
certainly not enough to mention in the TAFs through 18z Sunday.
Winds will remain light or calm through the period.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and dry conditions will remain in place through the weekend.
Min RHs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 30 to 35 percent
range, though winds should remain generally light to calm. Chances
of isolated showers and storms return on Sunday, with a more
humid air mass returning next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  99  72  98 /   0  20  10  30
Anniston    72  97  74  96 /   0  20  10  30
Birmingham  74  99  76  98 /   0  20  10  30
Tuscaloosa  74  99  74  97 /   0  20  10  40
Calera      74  99  74  97 /   0  20  10  30
Auburn      74  97  75  96 /   0  20  10  40
Montgomery  74  99  76  98 /  10  30  10  50
Troy        73  99  74  97 /  10  30  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...56/GDG