Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
240 FXUS64 KBMX 290621 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 121 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 110 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025 Ridging extends across the northern Gulf and Southeast region, but a subtle embedded shortwave will help to create numerous showers and storms today as moisture content continues to increase. Models indicate PWATs will rise to 2+ inches today which will further contribute to the higher coverage of rain. It`s uncertain exactly how convection will evolve, but greater influence from the shortwave will exist across northern portions of the area where initiation may occur by midday with propagation towards the south aided by weak north-northwesterly mid-level flow and thunderstorm outflow. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s before being overcome by the rain-cooled air later in the afternoon. On Monday, a longwave trough will deepen over the Midwest, extending south into the Lower MS River Valley region. This will dampen the ridge across the Southeast, contributing to another day of numerous to widespread showers and storms, especially during the afternoon. Saturated soundings will be a limitation to microburst potential, and DCAPE values do not look particularly high, but it`s summertime so any stronger storms will still be capable of producing gusty, sub-severe winds and frequent lightning. With moisture content as high as it will be, storms will also produce heavy downpours, and slow storm motions combined with saturated soils could lead to localized flooding both today and tomorrow. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 110 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025 Well above average rain chances look to continue into the extended period as a front moves towards the area in association with the eastward progression of the longwave trough. Increasing surface convergence, daytime heating, and very high moisture content will lead to high rain chances on Tuesday. Latest model runs bring the northeast to southwest oriented front into Central Alabama during the day on Tuesday as it begins to slow down and linger across the area on Wednesday. Some dry air may begin to filter into the area from the north on Wednesday, so rain chances will be focused across the southern portions of the area. Dry air advection looks to continue into the end of the week with deep ridging centered to our west promoting northerly flow across Central Alabama. The remnant and diffuse frontal boundary will be situated across the Gulf Coast region. While the coverage of rain will hold highs in the 80s for the first half of the week, a drier forecast in the second half of the week will lead to a warming trend with highs back into the low to mid 90s by the weekend. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025 VFR conditions will continue at most TAF sites through the remainder of the morning hours. Only mention of reduced visibilities is at ASN where some patchy fog may develop shortly before sunrise. Otherwise, a shortwave trough to our northwest will result in a wider coverage of showers and storms today, potentially reducing flight criteria at each terminal at some point during the afternoon. Winds will be light during the day, but gusty in or near thunderstorm activity. Convection will decrease in coverage after 03Z with the loss of daytime heating. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Numerous shower and thunderstorm activity will be prevalent across the area this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. Moisture content will be quite high over the next few days with min RH as high as 65-80% on Monday and Tuesday as a front moves into the area. Winds will be light other than gusts associated with thunderstorm activity. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 69 86 70 / 60 40 80 40 Anniston 86 70 85 71 / 60 40 80 40 Birmingham 88 71 87 71 / 60 50 80 30 Tuscaloosa 88 72 88 72 / 60 40 80 30 Calera 87 72 87 71 / 60 50 80 30 Auburn 85 70 86 70 / 60 50 80 30 Montgomery 89 71 88 71 / 60 50 80 40 Troy 89 69 87 70 / 70 50 90 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....86/Martin AVIATION...86/Martin