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FXUS64 KBMX 140525
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1225 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024

The heat has returned across Central Alabama, thanks to a building
upper level ridge over the Florida Big Bend. Most locations are
already observing low to mid 90s as of midday. We`re well on our
way to the upper 90s areawide, and would not be surprised to see a
few spots hit 100 before all is said and done. Slowly but surely,
we`re introducing a little bit more moisture both at the surface
and aloft. Looking back at the 12z sounding from the past couple
of days, you can certainly see the amount of dry air aloft has
been shrinking, especially between the 700-500mb levels. With
additional moisture and some lift caused by a weak shortwave
moving off to our north, isolated showers and perhaps a storm
can`t be ruled out this afternoon. I`ve gone ahead and added in a
slight chance PoP across the northern tier of counties, as well as
across the far south, where low-level moisture is greatest. Heat
indices are expected below criteria, but will still rise into the
100-103 degree range.

Following a calm and mostly clear night with lows in the 70s, the
heat will return once again during the day on Sunday. One
difference will be the return of higher dewpoints and humidity as
low-level flow becomes southwesterly over the region. As highs top
out in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees, we`ll be very close to
Heat Advisory criteria, especially in the urban heat islands and
more locations along and south of the I-85 corridor. For now, will
opt to hold off on a Heat Advisory, but that could change if
higher dewpoint trends are realized. Regardless, folks should
always take the proper precautions to prevent heat related
illness, especially with prolonged heat expected to last into
early next week. Rain chances will be a tad higher tomorrow
afternoon due to the moisture increase and presence of a weak
upper shortwave drifting off to our northwest. Scattered
convection will be possible across the far southwest and southern
counties with isolated development elsewhere.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024

Made some minor adjustments to rain chances in the extended, but
forecast trends are on track. Expect rain chances to increase each
day, as moisture increases and troughing develops across the
eastern CONUS by the end of the week.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024

Low amplitude upper-level flow will stretch across the CONUS at
the beginning of the period featuring a ridge across the West and
weak troughing across the East. However, low-level ridging will
remain positioned across the Southeast where an ongoing period of
above-average temperatures supports expanding drought across the
Tennessee Valley. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s are
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Making matters worse, mean low-level
flow will favor a southwesterly direction allowing for increasing
boundary layer moisture. PWs will rise toward 2.0" with dewpoints
in the low 70s. Thus, daytime heat index values will likely
meet/exceed advisory criteria. Our saving grace will be the
increasing chance for afternoon convection owing to increasing
moisture/instability. Furthermore, convective coverage could be
enhanced by the presence of a subtle upper-level low (barotropic
instability) progged near the ArkLaMiss Monday and Tuesday. PoPs
were increased a bit, but still remain below the "likely" category
until confidence increases that we`ll see meaningful coverage.

Temperatures begin a slow (and merciful) decrease mid to late next
week in association with a more prominent mid- to upper-level trough
progged to advance across the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. This
will feature embedded shortwaves that will swing closer to our
region on Thursday as the pattern aloft becomes more amplified.
Meanwhile, moisture values will increase a bit more Wednesday,
generally ahead of an associated front that approaches the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday. With the aid of synoptic forcing, convective
rain chances are 60-70% for Wed/Thu, and hopefully this will provide
beneficial rains to the forecast area. Rain chances remain elevated
along the progressing front into Friday, with drier air moving into
the area across the north. It doesn`t sound like much, but there
could be enough mid-level flow (around 20-25 kts) for a few stronger
storms on these days as well, should other mesoscale factors work
out.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to continue across central Alabama TAF
sites through the next 24 hours. There could be a brief bit of
light fog (no lower than 4sm or 5sm) here or there between 10z
and 12z, but not enough confidence to include at this time.
Otherwise, just scattered afternoon cumulus, with rain chances
generally 20 percent or less.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Other than isolated to scattered rain coverage Sunday afternoon,
expect warm and dry conditions to continue. Rain coverage begins
to increase each day next week, as moisture increases. Min RHs
Sunday will be in the 30 to 40 percent range, light to calm 20ft
winds. Minimum RH values will be above 35 percent beginning
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     99  72  97  73 /  20  20  30  10
Anniston    97  74  95  74 /  20  20  40  10
Birmingham  99  76  96  75 /  20  20  40  10
Tuscaloosa  99  74  95  74 /  20  20  40  10
Calera      99  74  95  75 /  20  20  40  10
Auburn      97  75  95  74 /  20  10  50  20
Montgomery  99  76  96  75 /  30  20  50  20
Troy        99  74  95  74 /  30  20  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION.../61/