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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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784 FXUS64 KBMX 080837 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 337 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 335 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2024 The weak front continues to meander around central Alabama. Synoptically, the front stretches from Oklahoma to Alabama then back to eastern portions of North Carolina. Looking at more of a mesoscale environment the front is north of the Shelby County Airport but south of Birmingham Metro. The differences are about 5 to 8 degrees in the dewpoint readings. At the same time Beryl is to our southwest and quickly approaching the coastline near Houston. Beryl is moving toward the north-northwest right now and will be moving inland before daybreak. We will be a favorable pattern for wet conditions over the next 2 days. The one caveat to this afternoon, would a dry zone that may enter the southwest thanks to the outer subsidence zone of Beryl. Southerly flow riding up into the frontal boundary should help increase coverage just to the north of this zone. North of the frontal boundary hit and miss showers/storms will be possible just with less coverage. Since it appears that most of the rain will hold off until the afternoon, we may see the heat advisory criteria across a good portion of the area. Most of the showers and storms will dissipate after sunset, but there could just a few lingering showers and storms early. As we move into Tuesday, the remnants of Beryl will slide northwest of the area, leaving a feeder convergence zone across Alabama. This zone will really increase the PWATS over the state and showers/storms will become widespread across the area. The good news is that cloud cover should keep the area just below criteria. In fact if the rain moves in earlier then the highs have a potential to bust based on coverage. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 335 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2024 Beryl will quickly advance northeastward across the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning as a post tropical cyclone. An associated cold front should be positioned southward across Central Alabama by then, bringing a west-to-east advancement of cooler, drier air that will effectively begin a period of lower rain chances that will dominate much of the long-term forecast. Temperature-wise, Wednesday will be the coolest day, and Thursday through Sunday will generally feature a warming trend as low-level ridging strengthens across the Southeast. Tropospheric moisture begins a slow recovery this weekend, so low-end diurnal PoPs (20-30%) were implemented for Sunday. Thus, no significant improvement is expected for local drought. In fact, temperatures in the mid to upper 90s toward the end of the period will likely worsen drought conditions. Dewpoints in the 60s will keep heat indices below advisory criteria for the period - so it`s basically a mixture of good and bad news. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2024 Generally VFR conditions outside of the afternoon thunderstorms expected at most sites. There is a low chance for some fog at ANB and ASN so included tempo wording here for MVFR fog. EET and TCL may also see some fog but confidence here is not high enough to include at this time. Most of the precipitation will be between 18 and 02z with the most likely 20z to 00z. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and humid conditions will continue through tomorrow, with scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Drier air will move into the area on Wednesday which will provide lower afternoon RH values for the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 96 73 94 72 / 40 30 60 30 Anniston 94 76 92 74 / 50 30 70 20 Birmingham 96 77 93 74 / 60 40 70 30 Tuscaloosa 95 76 91 73 / 60 40 80 20 Calera 95 75 92 74 / 60 40 70 20 Auburn 92 76 92 75 / 60 40 70 20 Montgomery 95 76 94 75 / 60 40 80 20 Troy 94 74 93 74 / 60 30 80 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby- Sumter-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....40/Sizemore AVIATION...16