![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
872 FXUS64 KBMX 090048 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 748 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 717 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2024 Scattered to numerous showers/storms are ongoing at this writing. MLCAPE values were up to 3000, DCAPE 1000+, while a bit of shear was showing up (20-25) west and northwest. The entire are was covered with an atmosphere with near 2 inch precipitable water values. Mid to upper level CAPE values may support some small hail but will also support water loading and potential wet microburst. Most of the storms today have exhibited downburst characteristics. Therefore, the stronger storms may produce small hail and wind gusts of 45-50 mph. Additionally, 1 to 2 inches of rain may fall in a short period of time producing ponding of water and nuisance flooding. The storm coverage will slowly decrease through midnight. Some drop in surface dew point has been noted after the heavy rain, but these values should bounce back up. We will remain in this tropical environment overnight and anticipate overnight lows near what they have been the past several days in the 70s. Tuesday discussion below still holds. Heat Risk values appear lower tomorrow even with some heat indices approaching 105. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2024 Tuesday, Beryl should be northwest of the area and continuing to move to the northeast. An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected Tuesday early afternoon through the evening. Scattered to widespread coverage is possible with PW values increasing and plenty of instability to work with. Winds will be breezy on Tuesday, with gusts up to 20 mph possible in the western counties. Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the lower 100s and a few places could reach 105. If the rain can begin early afternoon, the heat indices may not reach Heat Advisory criteria. If the rain becomes more isolated like a few earlier model runs were hinting, heat indices will be able to reach Heat Advisory criteria. Due to the amount of moisture and forcing, will err on the side of more storms and lower heat indices, and will hold off on an advisory for now. Though temperatures will still be soupy and miserable, especially after not getting much relief overnight with lows still in the 70s. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 158 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2024 A deep south summertime version of a cold front will move across the area on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Both temperatures and dewpoints will dip in the wake of this front, giving us at least a small break from the current heat and humidity. The lower humidity will also keep instability in check, so that diurnal convective coverage will be minimized through the end of the week. The upper level ridge tries to nudge back into our area over the weekend, and temperatures are forecast to climb back well into the 90s. The good news/bad news situation with this setup is that, despite the higher air temperatures, lower humidities should keep heat indices from getting too out of hand. But this will also limit the areal coverage of rain each afternoon, for folks that need some precipitation. /61/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 717 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2024 Scattered to numerous showers/storms were still around Central Alabama this evening. These storms will slowly decrease through 05z. The strongest storms may produce wind gusts of 40kts and small hail. Added the mention of MVFR ceilings developing for all terminals around 12z and lasting a few hours before lifting. Some locations may even briefly experience IFR during this period. Numerous showers and storms are expected Tuesday as tropical system Beryl moves northwest of the area. Right now have the ceilings VFR and PROB30 for storms. This will certainly be updated due to coverage as time moves closer. Winds will be light and variable to some southern component overnight. On Tuesday, Winds will be south southwest around 10kts will some gusts to near 20kts especially west. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and humid conditions will continue through tomorrow, with scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Drier air will move into the area on Wednesday which will provide lower afternoon RH values for the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 93 70 87 / 50 60 40 20 Anniston 75 92 74 86 / 50 60 40 20 Birmingham 75 92 72 87 / 50 70 40 20 Tuscaloosa 75 92 72 88 / 50 70 30 20 Calera 76 91 73 88 / 50 70 30 20 Auburn 75 90 75 88 / 40 60 40 30 Montgomery 75 93 74 89 / 40 80 20 30 Troy 74 91 74 91 / 40 80 20 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega- Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM..../61/ AVIATION...75