872
FXUS64 KBMX 090048
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
748 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 717 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2024

Scattered to numerous showers/storms are ongoing at this writing.
MLCAPE values were up to 3000, DCAPE 1000+, while a bit of shear
was showing up (20-25) west and northwest. The entire are was
covered with an atmosphere with near 2 inch precipitable water
values. Mid to upper level CAPE values may support some small
hail but will also support water loading and potential wet
microburst. Most of the storms today have exhibited downburst
characteristics. Therefore, the stronger storms may produce small
hail and wind gusts of 45-50 mph. Additionally, 1 to 2 inches of
rain may fall in a short period of time producing ponding of
water and nuisance flooding. The storm coverage will slowly
decrease through midnight. Some drop in surface dew point has been
noted after the heavy rain, but these values should bounce back
up. We will remain in this tropical environment overnight and
anticipate overnight lows near what they have been the past
several days in the 70s. Tuesday discussion below still holds.
Heat Risk values appear lower tomorrow even with some heat indices
approaching 105.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2024

Tuesday, Beryl should be northwest of the area and continuing to
move to the northeast. An area of showers and thunderstorms is
expected Tuesday early afternoon through the evening. Scattered to
widespread coverage is possible with PW values increasing and
plenty of instability to work with. Winds will be breezy on
Tuesday, with gusts up to 20 mph possible in the western counties.

Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with
heat indices in the lower 100s and a few places could reach 105.
If the rain can begin early afternoon, the heat indices may not
reach Heat Advisory criteria. If the rain becomes more isolated
like a few earlier model runs were hinting, heat indices will be
able to reach Heat Advisory criteria. Due to the amount of
moisture and forcing, will err on the side of more storms and
lower heat indices, and will hold off on an advisory for now.
Though temperatures will still be soupy and miserable, especially
after not getting much relief overnight with lows still in the
70s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2024

A deep south summertime version of a cold front will move across
the area on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Both temperatures and
dewpoints will dip in the wake of this front, giving us at least a
small break from the current heat and humidity. The lower humidity
will also keep instability in check, so that diurnal convective
coverage will be minimized through the end of the week. The upper
level ridge tries to nudge back into our area over the weekend,
and temperatures are forecast to climb back well into the 90s. The
good news/bad news situation with this setup is that, despite the
higher air temperatures, lower humidities should keep heat indices
from getting too out of hand. But this will also limit the areal
coverage of rain each afternoon, for folks that need some
precipitation.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2024

Scattered to numerous showers/storms were still around Central
Alabama this evening. These storms will slowly decrease through
05z. The strongest storms may produce wind gusts of 40kts and
small hail. Added the mention of MVFR ceilings developing for all
terminals around 12z and lasting a few hours before lifting. Some
locations may even briefly experience IFR during this period.
Numerous showers and storms are expected Tuesday as tropical
system Beryl moves northwest of the area. Right now have the
ceilings VFR and PROB30 for storms. This will certainly be updated
due to coverage as time moves closer. Winds will be light and
variable to some southern component overnight. On Tuesday, Winds
will be south southwest around 10kts will some gusts to near 20kts
especially west.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through tomorrow, with
scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Drier
air will move into the area on Wednesday which will provide lower
afternoon RH values for the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  93  70  87 /  50  60  40  20
Anniston    75  92  74  86 /  50  60  40  20
Birmingham  75  92  72  87 /  50  70  40  20
Tuscaloosa  75  92  72  88 /  50  70  30  20
Calera      76  91  73  88 /  50  70  30  20
Auburn      75  90  75  88 /  40  60  40  30
Montgomery  75  93  74  89 /  40  80  20  30
Troy        74  91  74  91 /  40  80  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-
Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-
Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-
Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...75