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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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218 FXUS64 KBMX 092049 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 349 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2024 The remnants of Beryl will continue to move to the northeast through today, with a front moving west to east through the area tonight and Wednesday morning. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the area this afternoon and early evening. Instabilities will be hovering around 2000 J/kg this afternoon, with weak shear. As the low pressure system passes to the north of the state this evening, shear increases and 0-1 km shear will be 20-30 kts. PW values will be max for this time of year thanks to the strong southwesterly prevailing mid level winds. Any activity is capable of producing high rainfall rates and gusting winds. Storms should be moving fairly quickly due to the stronger mid level winds. Winds at the surface will increase through the day, with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible in the western counties. Overnight, the activity should weaken and become more isolated, decreasing from west to east. By Wednesday morning, northwesterly flow will move over the state with drier air moving into the area. Models are trying to hold on to a few areas of showers in the far southeast in the afternoon, but with so much dry air in place, will only keep a chance in for now. Temperatures will be cooler across the area through the afternoon with so much scattered convection. Highs today will be in the low 70s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and low 70s while highs Wednesday will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. With so much dry air filtering into the area, heat indices will finally be in the mid to upper 90s Wednesday. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 309 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2024 Long term forecast is on track today, with only minor changes to rain chances through the end of the week. Expecting less rain coverage, compared to the last few days, ridging settles over the area. With slightly lower dewpoints, we should be able to get through the work week with no heat advisories. Rain chances creep backup for the end of the forecast period as moisture increases ahead of another weak trough/frontal system. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 305 AM CDT TUE JUL 9 2024 Mid- to upper-level troughing will remain positioned near the Great Lakes Thursday, stretching an axis southwestward into the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-level ridging will already be in a strengthening phase across the Southeast, with an subsequent broadening of the ridge aloft. Thus, the period will generally feature a warming temperature trend while moisture profiles remain insufficient for meaningful rain chances - outside of isolated diurnal convection across our southern forecast zones. Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 90s this weekend as the deep-layer ridge centers across the northern Gulf with 500 mb heights ~596 decameters. By early next week, dewpoints & PWs increase enough to foster more scattered afternoon convection, though overall rain chances/QPF will not be enough to combat these above-average temperatures. Unfortunately, this will likely worsen ongoing local drought conditions. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2024 With the remnants of Beryl moving to the northeast of the area through the TAF period, winds will increase and shift from the south to southwest today to northwesterly Wednesday. Any shower or storm that moves over a TAF site could produce brief periods of IFR visibilities due to the high low level moisture and high rain rates expected. Activity should decrease overnight from west to east with VFR conditions expected at each TAF site Wednesday late morning through the afternoon. Note: AMD NOT SKED at KASN due to missing ceilings. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air arrives Wednesday, with most of the area remaining rain free through the end of the week. Wednesday, minimum RH values will be in the 40 to 55 percent range with northwest 20ft winds at 5-8mph. For Thursday and Friday, northwest 20ft winds decrease to less than 5mph with minimum RH values in the 30 to 45 percent range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 88 66 93 / 40 0 0 10 Anniston 71 88 68 92 / 40 0 0 10 Birmingham 70 89 69 93 / 40 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 69 90 69 94 / 10 0 0 10 Calera 70 90 70 93 / 30 0 0 10 Auburn 74 89 71 92 / 30 10 0 10 Montgomery 73 91 71 93 / 30 10 0 10 Troy 73 91 71 93 / 30 30 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...24