332
FXUS64 KBMX 100050
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
750 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2024

The remnants of Beryl will continue to move to the northeast through
today, with a front moving west to east through the area tonight and
Wednesday morning. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through the area this afternoon and early evening.
Instabilities will be hovering around 2000 J/kg this afternoon,
with weak shear. As the low pressure system passes to the north of
the state this evening, shear increases and 0-1 km shear will be
20-30 kts. PW values will be max for this time of year thanks to
the strong southwesterly prevailing mid level winds. Any activity
is capable of producing high rainfall rates and gusting winds.
Storms should be moving fairly quickly due to the stronger mid
level winds.

Winds at the surface will increase through the day, with gusts up to
20-25 mph possible in the western counties. Overnight, the activity
should weaken and become more isolated, decreasing from west to
east. By Wednesday morning, northwesterly flow will move over the
state with drier air moving into the area. Models are trying to hold
on to a few areas of showers in the far southeast in the afternoon,
but with so much dry air in place, will only keep a chance in for
now. Temperatures will be cooler across the area through the
afternoon with so much scattered convection. Highs today will be
in the low 70s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and low 70s
while highs Wednesday will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. With
so much dry air filtering into the area, heat indices will finally
be in the mid to upper 90s Wednesday.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2024

Long term forecast is on track today, with only minor changes to
rain chances through the end of the week. Expecting less rain
coverage, compared to the last few days, ridging settles over the
area. With slightly lower dewpoints, we should be able to get
through the work week with no heat advisories. Rain chances creep
backup for the end of the forecast period as moisture increases
ahead of another weak trough/frontal system.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT TUE JUL 9 2024

Mid- to upper-level troughing will remain positioned near the Great
Lakes Thursday, stretching an axis southwestward into the Southern
Plains. Meanwhile, low-level ridging will already be in a
strengthening phase across the Southeast, with an subsequent
broadening of the ridge aloft. Thus, the period will generally
feature a warming temperature trend while moisture profiles remain
insufficient for meaningful rain chances - outside of isolated
diurnal convection across our southern forecast zones. Afternoon
highs will reach the mid to upper 90s this weekend as the deep-layer
ridge centers across the northern Gulf with 500 mb heights ~596
decameters. By early next week, dewpoints & PWs increase enough to
foster more scattered afternoon convection, though overall rain
chances/QPF will not be enough to combat these above-average
temperatures. Unfortunately, this will likely worsen ongoing local
drought conditions.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2024

With the remnants of Beryl continuing EWD to our N, chances for
convection will continue EWD as well across AL. Most is to our E
and N across GA, TN/KY, etc. There is a chance for an isolated
shower over the next few hours with the associated surface
boundary. However, only had a couple of VCSH mentioned due to
lingering activity at TAF time. Otherwise, conditions should
improve. Cigs should be generally VFR with any isolated activity
near boundary. Then cloud cover should decrease through the
remainder of the forecast. Visibilities should remain VFR. Winds
will shift to the W tonight behind the boundary then NW during the
day on Wed.

Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN due to missing ceilings.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air arrives Wednesday, with most of the area remaining rain
free through the end of the week. Wednesday, minimum RH values
will be in the 40 to 55 percent range with northwest 20ft winds at
5-8mph. For Thursday and Friday, northwest 20ft winds decrease to
less than 5mph with minimum RH values in the 30 to 45 percent
range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  88  66  93 /  30   0   0  10
Anniston    71  88  68  92 /  30   0   0  10
Birmingham  70  89  69  93 /  20   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  69  90  69  94 /  20   0   0  10
Calera      70  90  70  93 /  20   0   0  10
Auburn      74  89  71  92 /  40  10   0  10
Montgomery  73  91  71  93 /  30  10   0  10
Troy        73  91  71  93 /  40  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14/40/Sizemore
AVIATION...08