712
FXUS64 KBMX 100756
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
256 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2024

Today.

A mid-level trough remains over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley
Region while weak ridging remains over much of the Southeast states.
Strong longwave amplified ridging was over much of the Intermountain
West and Desert Southwest Regions. A surface front was analyzed
moving southeast across the area at this writing with surface high
pressure to our southeast across much of the Florida Peninsula with
stronger and more expansive surface high pressure across much of the
Plains.

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies over the area through mid
morning with thicker clouds near and southeast of the front with the
potential for isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two along and
east of the front as it continues to move across the far southeast
portion of the area. Otherwise, clouds will be decreasing across the
west and northwest with slightly drier air settling over our
northern and much of our central counties. Winds will be from the
northwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from the upper
80s across the northeast to the low 90s across portions of the
western and southern counties. Lower humidity will result in peak
heat index values reaching the mid 90s across the southeast and
south-central counties in the early afternoon hours.

Tonight.

Remnant broad troughing will linger over the Mid-South and Tennessee
Valley Regions tonight while strong and expansive ridging will
become centered over Southern Nevada well to our west. The surface
front is forecast to stall across the Wiregrass of Southeast
Alabama, keeping skies partly cloudy across the southeast portion of
the area with chances for a few showers and a storm or two across
our far southeast counties overnight. Otherwise, expect fair skies
with light north to northwest winds at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures
will range from the mid 60s north and northeast to the upper 60s
across the southwest and southern third of the forecast area.

Thursday.

THe remnant troughing in the mid levels will weaken with time to our
north on Thursday while the expansive deep-layer ridge persists over
Nevada well to our west. The front remains stalled just to the south
of our forecast area, roughly parallel to the U.S. Highway 84
corridor. Surface high pressure will continue to remain expansive
across the Plains, building further east into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley Regions with time.

Look for partly cloudy skies on Thursday with a chance for some
shower activity with a few thunderstorms across our far southern
counties, generally from Demopolis to Montgomery to Eufaula and
southwest. Otherwise, rain-free conditions are forecast further
north. Winds will be remain from the north at 4-8 mph. High
temperatures will range from the upper 80s in the higher terrain far
north and far east with readings in the low to mid 90s expected
elsewhere. Peak heat index readings will be greatest across the
southeast and south-central counties with values from 94 to 97
during the early to mid afternoon hours.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2024

Mid- to upper-level troughing will maintain presence from the Great
Lakes southwestward into the Southern Plains through this weekend,
though will become less amplified. Coinciding, low- to mid-level
ridging will continue a strengthening phase across the Southeast,
with an subsequent broadening of the upper ridge across the
Rockies/Intermountain West. Meanwhile, moisture content across the
Tennessee Valley/Deep South will remain somewhat limited, and this
will keep diurnal rain chances low through the weekend as
temperatures soar into the mid to upper 90s each afternoon. Though
there`s model disagreement on timing of moisture recovery early next
week, forecast dewpoints & PWs generally increase day-to-day which
led to a slow increase in diurnal PoPs. Thus, it appears it will be
mid next week before more meaningful convective coverage and
rainfall can occur.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2024

A surface front continues to move east across the area with the
thickest and lowest clouds along and ahead of the boundary. Expect
a few showers along the front overnight as it continues to
advance east followed by improving conditions behind it with
gradual decreasing cloud thickness and higher bases. Breezy low-
level winds from 7-14 kts on average can be expected near the
boundary as it crosses the area. Expect VFR conditions areawide on
Thursday with dry conditions and lighter northwest surface winds.

Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN due to missing ceilings.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air is moving into Central Alabama behind a summer cold
front. This will promote northwesterly 20 ft winds at 5-10 mph
this afternoon with minimum RH values in the 35-55% range. For
Thursday and Friday, northwest 20 ft winds decrease to less than
5 mph with minimum RH values 30-45%. Sparse rain shower &
thunderstorm chances return by Sunday as moisture slowly increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  64  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    89  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  90  69  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  91  69  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      90  69  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      90  69  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  91  69  94  71 /  10   0  10   0
Troy        92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...05