984
FXUS64 KBMX 110245
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
945 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of Tonight)
Issued at 940 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2024

The forecast is in good shape with no major changes made for
tonight. We have rain free conditions for tonight with subsidence
in control, resulting in light/variable to calm winds and only
some high cirrus clouds generally across the SRN 1/3 of C AL. With
more bearable dew points tonight, overnight lows will range from
the middle 60s to around 70.

08

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2024

As a low pressure moves to the northeast through the Ohio Valley,
a trailing area of low level clouds will move across the
northeastern half of the area today and this evening. Otherwise,
northerly flow will bring drier air to the state with heat indices
in the low to mid 90s today and Thursday. A high pressure tries to
develop to the west of Alabama and over the lower Mississippi
River Valley, but this only continues the northerly flow and dry
air advection. Dry weather will be present through Thursday.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2024

Not much to change in the extended this afternoon, with the
airmass generally dominated by drier air and ridging over the area
though the weekend. As moisture returns early next week, afternoon
rain chances return.

Of note, as temperatures will reach the mid to upper 90s beginning
Sunday. A few 100F readings are not out of the question. With
dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s, heat indices will once
again reach 105F or warmer. Heat Advisories may become necessary
for portions of the area beginning Sunday.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2024

Mid- to upper-level troughing will maintain presence from the Great
Lakes southwestward into the Southern Plains through this weekend,
though will become less amplified. Coinciding, low- to mid-level
ridging will continue a strengthening phase across the Southeast,
with an subsequent broadening of the upper ridge across the
Rockies/Intermountain West. Meanwhile, moisture content across the
Tennessee Valley/Deep South will remain somewhat limited, and this
will keep diurnal rain chances low through the weekend as
temperatures soar into the mid to upper 90s each afternoon. Though
there`s model disagreement on timing of moisture recovery early next
week, forecast dewpoints & PWs generally increase day-to-day which
led to a slow increase in diurnal PoPs. Thus, it appears it will be
mid next week before more meaningful convective coverage and
rainfall can occur.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2024

A VFR forecast is expected for the next 24 hours for C AL TAFs.
Surface ridging in the wake of Beryl, will allow for dry weather.
Only fair weather minimal cumulus and some high cirrus is expected
generally with good vsby and light winds.

Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN due to missing ceilings.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air and rain free conditions remain in place over Central
Alabama through Friday. For tomorrow and Friday, northwesterly 20
ft winds decrease to less than 5 mph with minimum RH values
30-45%. On Friday, minimum RH values will be in the 30-40% range.
Sparse rain shower & thunderstorm chances return by Sunday as
moisture slowly increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  92  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    67  91  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  69  93  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  69  93  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      69  93  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      70  92  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  70  94  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        69  94  70  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08/24
LONG TERM....14/40/Sizemore
AVIATION...08