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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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580 FXUS64 KBMX 141825 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 125 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 124 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024 Convective activity is ongoing early this afternoon in response to increased moisture both at the surface and aloft, along with a weak 500mb shortwave centered near Memphis. Most convective activity is currently located closer to the main shortwave trough across the western and northwest counties. We do have a little westerly shear aloft around 20 knots, with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg across our far northwest counties. Visible satellite is actually showing the cu fields developing close to ridgeline locations with orographic lift of parcels ongoing as well. With plenty of heating expected this afternoon, some of these storms could contain gusty winds and frequent lightning as highs top out in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees areawide. Scattered storms will remain in the forecast for the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening across the western half of Central Alabama before diminishing overnight. Heat indices are still on track to remain mostly below Heat Advisory this afternoon, but rise between 100 and 104 degrees areawide. A few spots could briefly hit 105, but not widespread enough for an advisory. Still very hot regardless, so folks need to continue to take precautions to avoid heat related illness. Warm and muggy conditions are expected overnight tonight with lows only dropping into the low and mid 70s. With moisture levels ever so slightly increasing, we`ll see additional scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms once again Monday afternoon. Actual high temperatures will be a degree or two lower than today, but higher dewpoints in the lower 70s will lead to similar heat indices between 100 and 104. Currently locations along and south of the I-85 corridor would have the best chance of seeing 105 or greater heat indices for more than an hour, so will currently hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory at this time. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024 A low amplitude upper-level flow is expected on Tuesday with two mid- level ridges; one situated near the Four Corners and one north of The Bahamas. A broad based trough is progged to continue advancement across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Meanwhile, a weakness/trough aloft will stretch from eastern Texas through the Tennessee Valley which will feature embedded vorticity maxima resultant from what appears to be barotropic instability. These features aloft appear to align with an area of southerly to southwesterly sfc-850 mb flow where favorable boundary layer moisture will reside, supporting afternoon convection. These factors considered, I`ve kept a 40-60% PoP for Tuesday afternoon, and this will essentially kick off a period of more increasing rain chances that could easily stick around through the weekend. The aforementioned trough will be the main player, along with an associated polar front that advances south toward our area by Thursday. Enhanced tropospheric moisture will remain present across the Deep South along with the synoptic trough now encompassing the central CONUS. The stalled, remnant surface front should be somewhere in our region as well, likely suppressed along/north of the coast. Additionally, latest medium-range guidance suggests a favorable positioning of an upper-level jet streak that could maintain above-average convective coverage and below-average daytime temperatures into the weekend. This would certainly be a beneficial weather pattern to alleviate our recent, expanding drought. Though there`s nothing in particular standing out in guidance, the (occasional) presence of 20-30 kts mid-level flow and the persistent favorable environment for daily convection suggests the possibility of locally heavy rain and/or a stronger storm later this week. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period, but SHRA/TSRA development is possible this afternoon through the early evening hours. Due to the scattered nature of the storms, will hold off on mentioning any VCTS at this time and go with VCSH. Amendments may be needed if storms quickly develop near terminal locations, and storms will contain variably gusty winds. A few storms already have produced gusts over 20 knots early this afternoon. Storms will diminish overnight with VFR conditions continuing. Light westerly winds will become calm and variable tonight. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Other than isolated to scattered rain coverage this afternoon, expect warm and dry conditions to continue. Rain coverage begins to increase each day next week, as moisture increases. Min RHs Sunday will be in the 30 to 40 percent range, light to calm 20ft winds. Minimum RH values will be above 35 percent beginning Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 96 71 95 / 10 50 20 50 Anniston 73 95 73 93 / 20 50 20 60 Birmingham 75 95 74 95 / 20 50 20 50 Tuscaloosa 74 95 74 95 / 20 50 20 50 Calera 74 95 74 94 / 20 50 20 50 Auburn 75 95 74 93 / 20 50 30 60 Montgomery 75 97 74 95 / 20 50 30 60 Troy 73 97 73 95 / 20 50 20 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56/GDG LONG TERM....40 AVIATION...56/GDG