900
FXUS64 KBMX 110657
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
157 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of Tonight)
Issued at 940 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2024

The forecast is in good shape with no major changes made for
tonight. We have rain free conditions for tonight with subsidence
in control, resulting in light/variable to calm winds and only
some high cirrus clouds generally across the SRN 1/3 of C AL. With
more bearable dew points tonight, overnight lows will range from
the middle 60s to around 70.

08

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2024

As a low pressure moves to the northeast through the Ohio Valley,
a trailing area of low level clouds will move across the
northeastern half of the area today and this evening. Otherwise,
northerly flow will bring drier air to the state with heat indices
in the low to mid 90s today and Thursday. A high pressure tries to
develop to the west of Alabama and over the lower Mississippi
River Valley, but this only continues the northerly flow and dry
air advection. Dry weather will be present through Thursday.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2024

Key Messages:
- High temperatures return to the mid to upper 90s areawide
  through midweek next week.
- Increasing humidity will result in afternoon heat index readings
  meeting or exceeding 105 degrees starting Sunday, then expanding
  further Monday through Wednesday.

Friday through Monday.

The forecast area will remain positioned between two sprawling
mid-level ridges, once centered over Utah and the other over the
Northwest Atlantic Basin. A residual weakness will persist over
much of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and Northern portions of
the Tennessee Valley Regions. A few shortwave disturbances look to
move east across these areas later in the weekend and into early
next work week. Surface high pressure will extend from across much
of the Northeast and Ohio River Valley southward through the
Tennessee Valley into our Northern and Central Counties while a
weak surface boundary remains positioned zonally just south of the
forecast area toward the Northern Gulf coast Region. Expect this
boundary to gradually retreat northward as a warm front late
Saturday into Sunday with high pressure contracting across the
Central Appalachians.

The relative weakness in the ridging aloft along with strong
surface heating and relative weaker surface high pressure will
permit the development of isolated showers with some thunderstorm
activity on Saturday with better chances generally along and south
of Interstate 20 with lower chances for some lingering evening
activity Saturday night. Similar conditions are expected Sunday
with slightly higher chances across more of the area with lower
chances far northeast and greater chances generally near the U.S.
Highway 80 corridor and points south, isolated activity will be
possible Sunday night across the southern half of the area.
Isolated showers and storms are expected Monday across much o the
area with some scattered activity possible across the far southern
tier of the forecast area.

Daytime highs will range from the mid 90s in the higher terrain
east to near the century mark in spots. Overnight lows will
increase, initially ranging from around 70 northeast to the low
70s south and west Saturday morning to widespread readings in the
low to mid 70s by Monday morning. The combination of heat and
increasing humidity will result in heat index values topping out
around 103 far south and far west Saturday afternoon, followed by
readings topping out near 105 degrees across more of the south and
western counties Sunday and then topping out potentially above
105 across the far west and far south with much of the southern
and western counties meeting heat advisory criteria Monday
afternoon.

Monday Night through Wednesday.

Mid-level ridging begins to build closer to our area, over the
Mid-South Region Tuesday into Wednesday as the mid-level weakness
aloft moves further east of the area. Frontolysis is anticipated
late Monday into Tuesday with surface high pressure centered to
the southeast of the area.

A return to isolated showers with some thunderstorms is forecast
Monday night across the southern portion of the area overnight,
then across much of the area during the day Tuesday. Isolated
activity is forecast across the southeast portion o the area
Tuesday night followed by isolated showers and storms northwest
with scattered activity south and east on Wednesday.

Much of the area looks to be entrenched in a rather uncomfortable
humid airmass with hot temperatures during the afternoon hours
and balmy overnight conditions. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s
areawide Tuesday morning, followed by readings in the mid 70s
areawide Wednesday morning. Highs will range from the mid 90s in
the higher elevations east to near the century mark in some spots
on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of heat and humidity
will result in heat index values from 105-108 generally across all
but the eastern higher elevation areas on Tuesday and Wednesday.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2024

All signs continue to point to VFR conditions across central
Alabama TAF sites through the next 24 hours. No obvious issues
that would affect the terminals -- just a light northwest wind
picking up around 1500Z, and a few cumulus during the afternoon.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air and rain free conditions remain in place over Central
Alabama through Friday. For tomorrow and Friday, northwesterly 20
ft winds decrease to less than 5 mph with minimum RH values
30-45%. On Friday, minimum RH values will be in the 30-40% range.
Sparse rain shower & thunderstorm chances return by Sunday as
moisture slowly increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  66  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    91  68  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  93  71  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  93  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      93  71  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      92  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  94  71  97  72 /   0   0  10   0
Troy        94  70  97  71 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...02