886
FXUS64 KBMX 120241
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
941 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 935 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2024

The forecast is in good shape with no major changes made for
tonight. We continue with another rain free night and mostly
clear skies with subsidence in control, resulting in light/
variable to calm winds. Look for lows only a tad milder tonight in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

08

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2024

A tranquil summer day is on tap across Central Alabama, with only
fair weather cumulus able to develop due to dry air aloft from 700
to 500mb. Drier air remains present at the surface with dewpoints
ranging from the low to mid 60s as of midday. A 500mb ridge
remains just to our south over the northern Gulf of Mexico, with
westerly flow aloft across much of the Southeast. Highs will top
out this afternoon closer to normal for early July (which has
been a rarity as of late) in the low to mid 90s with no rain
chances to mention.

Very calm and mostly clear skies can be expected overnight tonight
with more comfortable lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
The 500mb ridge to our south will build and become centered near
the Florida Big Bend by Friday afternoon. 1000-850mb thicknesses
will increase as a result, with the drier air still remaining in
place across the Deep South. With no rain chances, high
temperatures will soar into the mid and upper 90s. Thankfully
we`ll have dewpoints mixing down into the lower 60s during the
afternoon, keeping heat indices well below advisory criteria.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2024

No major changes were made to the extended. We continue to be rain
free for Fri night with isolated diurnal rain chances returning
over the weekend into the beginning of next week as low level
moisture increases, our airmass moderates with air temperatures
going back into the upper 90s to around the century mark. We will
return to more humid conditions as well with likely the need for
heat advisories once again as we head into next week. Gulf
moisture increases even more at the end of the extended by the
middle of next week with increased more scattered to likely
diurnal convection.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2024

Key Messages:
- High temperatures return to the mid to upper 90s areawide
  through midweek next week.
- Increasing humidity will result in afternoon heat index readings
  meeting or exceeding 105 degrees starting Sunday, then expanding
  further Monday through Wednesday.

Friday through Monday.

The forecast area will remain positioned between two sprawling
mid-level ridges, once centered over Utah and the other over the
Northwest Atlantic Basin. A residual weakness will persist over
much of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and Northern portions of
the Tennessee Valley Regions. A few shortwave disturbances look to
move east across these areas later in the weekend and into early
next work week. Surface high pressure will extend from across much
of the Northeast and Ohio River Valley southward through the
Tennessee Valley into our Northern and Central Counties while a
weak surface boundary remains positioned zonally just south of the
forecast area toward the Northern Gulf coast Region. Expect this
boundary to gradually retreat northward as a warm front late
Saturday into Sunday with high pressure contracting across the
Central Appalachians.

The relative weakness in the ridging aloft along with strong
surface heating and relative weaker surface high pressure will
permit the development of isolated showers with some thunderstorm
activity on Saturday with better chances generally along and south
of Interstate 20 with lower chances for some lingering evening
activity Saturday night. Similar conditions are expected Sunday
with slightly higher chances across more of the area with lower
chances far northeast and greater chances generally near the U.S.
Highway 80 corridor and points south, isolated activity will be
possible Sunday night across the southern half of the area.
Isolated showers and storms are expected Monday across much o the
area with some scattered activity possible across the far southern
tier of the forecast area.

Daytime highs will range from the mid 90s in the higher terrain
east to near the century mark in spots. Overnight lows will
increase, initially ranging from around 70 northeast to the low
70s south and west Saturday morning to widespread readings in the
low to mid 70s by Monday morning. The combination of heat and
increasing humidity will result in heat index values topping out
around 103 far south and far west Saturday afternoon, followed by
readings topping out near 105 degrees across more of the south and
western counties Sunday and then topping out potentially above
105 across the far west and far south with much of the southern
and western counties meeting heat advisory criteria Monday
afternoon.

Monday Night through Wednesday.

Mid-level ridging begins to build closer to our area, over the
Mid-South Region Tuesday into Wednesday as the mid-level weakness
aloft moves further east of the area. Frontolysis is anticipated
late Monday into Tuesday with surface high pressure centered to
the southeast of the area.

A return to isolated showers with some thunderstorms is forecast
Monday night across the southern portion of the area overnight,
then across much of the area during the day Tuesday. Isolated
activity is forecast across the southeast portion o the area
Tuesday night followed by isolated showers and storms northwest
with scattered activity south and east on Wednesday.

Much of the area looks to be entrenched in a rather uncomfortable
humid airmass with hot temperatures during the afternoon hours
and balmy overnight conditions. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s
areawide Tuesday morning, followed by readings in the mid 70s
areawide Wednesday morning. Highs will range from the mid 90s in
the higher elevations east to near the century mark in some spots
on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of heat and humidity
will result in heat index values from 105-108 generally across all
but the eastern higher elevation areas on Tuesday and Wednesday.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2024

VFR conditions will be present for the 24 hour forecast across C
AL.

NW-N winds 5-8kts will become light/variable to near calm
overnight with subsidence in the area. Winds will generally
remain light/variable into much of Fri as well, but a few spots
may see NW-N winds during part of the afternoon peak mixing at
5-7kts. Cloud cover will be minimal, mainly fair weather cumulus
with heating.

Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN UFN due to missing ceilings.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air and rain free conditions will remain in place over
Central Alabama through Friday. Small shower & thunderstorm
chances return over the weekend, as low level moisture slowly
increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  96  70  97 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    69  95  71  96 /   0  10   0  10
Birmingham  71  97  73  98 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  70  97  72  98 /   0  10   0  10
Calera      71  98  72  98 /   0  10   0  10
Auburn      71  96  73  97 /   0  10   0  10
Montgomery  70  96  73  99 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08/56/GDG
LONG TERM....08/05
AVIATION...08