580
FXUS64 KBMX 141825
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
125 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024

Convective activity is ongoing early this afternoon in response to
increased moisture both at the surface and aloft, along with a
weak 500mb shortwave centered near Memphis. Most convective
activity is currently located closer to the main shortwave trough
across the western and northwest counties. We do have a little
westerly shear aloft around 20 knots, with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg
across our far northwest counties. Visible satellite is actually
showing the cu fields developing close to ridgeline locations with
orographic lift of parcels ongoing as well. With plenty of
heating expected this afternoon, some of these storms could
contain gusty winds and frequent lightning as highs top out in the
upper 90s to near 100 degrees areawide. Scattered storms will
remain in the forecast for the rest of the afternoon and into the
early evening across the western half of Central Alabama before
diminishing overnight. Heat indices are still on track to remain
mostly below Heat Advisory this afternoon, but rise between 100
and 104 degrees areawide. A few spots could briefly hit 105, but
not widespread enough for an advisory. Still very hot regardless,
so folks need to continue to take precautions to avoid heat
related illness.

Warm and muggy conditions are expected overnight tonight with
lows only dropping into the low and mid 70s. With moisture levels
ever so slightly increasing, we`ll see additional scattered to
perhaps numerous showers and storms once again Monday afternoon.
Actual high temperatures will be a degree or two lower than today,
but higher dewpoints in the lower 70s will lead to similar heat
indices between 100 and 104. Currently locations along and south
of the I-85 corridor would have the best chance of seeing 105 or
greater heat indices for more than an hour, so will currently hold
off on issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024

A low amplitude upper-level flow is expected on Tuesday with two mid-
level ridges; one situated near the Four Corners and one north of
The Bahamas. A broad based trough is progged to continue advancement
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Meanwhile, a
weakness/trough aloft will stretch from eastern Texas through the
Tennessee Valley which will feature embedded vorticity maxima
resultant from what appears to be barotropic instability. These
features aloft appear to align with an area of southerly to
southwesterly sfc-850 mb flow where favorable boundary layer
moisture will reside, supporting afternoon convection. These
factors considered, I`ve kept a 40-60% PoP for Tuesday afternoon,
and this will essentially kick off a period of more increasing
rain chances that could easily stick around through the weekend.
The aforementioned trough will be the main player, along with an
associated polar front that advances south toward our area by
Thursday. Enhanced tropospheric moisture will remain present
across the Deep South along with the synoptic trough now
encompassing the central CONUS. The stalled, remnant surface
front should be somewhere in our region as well, likely suppressed
along/north of the coast. Additionally, latest medium-range
guidance suggests a favorable positioning of an upper-level jet
streak that could maintain above-average convective coverage and
below-average daytime temperatures into the weekend. This would
certainly be a beneficial weather pattern to alleviate our recent,
expanding drought.

Though there`s nothing in particular standing out in guidance, the
(occasional) presence of 20-30 kts mid-level flow and the
persistent favorable environment for daily convection suggests
the possibility of locally heavy rain and/or a stronger storm
later this week.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period, but SHRA/TSRA
development is possible this afternoon through the early evening
hours. Due to the scattered nature of the storms, will hold off on
mentioning any VCTS at this time and go with VCSH. Amendments may
be needed if storms quickly develop near terminal locations, and
storms will contain variably gusty winds. A few storms already
have produced gusts over 20 knots early this afternoon. Storms
will diminish overnight with VFR conditions continuing. Light
westerly winds will become calm and variable tonight.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Other than isolated to scattered rain coverage this afternoon,
expect warm and dry conditions to continue. Rain coverage begins
to increase each day next week, as moisture increases. Min RHs
Sunday will be in the 30 to 40 percent range, light to calm 20ft
winds. Minimum RH values will be above 35 percent beginning
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  96  71  95 /  10  50  20  50
Anniston    73  95  73  93 /  20  50  20  60
Birmingham  75  95  74  95 /  20  50  20  50
Tuscaloosa  74  95  74  95 /  20  50  20  50
Calera      74  95  74  94 /  20  50  20  50
Auburn      75  95  74  93 /  20  50  30  60
Montgomery  75  97  74  95 /  20  50  30  60
Troy        73  97  73  95 /  20  50  20  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...56/GDG