887
FXUS64 KBMX 120724
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
224 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 935 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2024

The forecast is in good shape with no major changes made for
tonight. We continue with another rain free night and mostly
clear skies with subsidence in control, resulting in light/
variable to calm winds. Look for lows only a tad milder tonight in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

08

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2024

A tranquil summer day is on tap across Central Alabama, with only
fair weather cumulus able to develop due to dry air aloft from 700
to 500mb. Drier air remains present at the surface with dewpoints
ranging from the low to mid 60s as of midday. A 500mb ridge
remains just to our south over the northern Gulf of Mexico, with
westerly flow aloft across much of the Southeast. Highs will top
out this afternoon closer to normal for early July (which has
been a rarity as of late) in the low to mid 90s with no rain
chances to mention.

Very calm and mostly clear skies can be expected overnight tonight
with more comfortable lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
The 500mb ridge to our south will build and become centered near
the Florida Big Bend by Friday afternoon. 1000-850mb thicknesses
will increase as a result, with the drier air still remaining in
place across the Deep South. With no rain chances, high
temperatures will soar into the mid and upper 90s. Thankfully
we`ll have dewpoints mixing down into the lower 60s during the
afternoon, keeping heat indices well below advisory criteria.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024

Key Messages:
- High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s through Wednesday.
- Increasing humidity will produce heat index readings over 105
  degrees across portions of the area Monday through Thursday.

Sunday through Tuesday.

Mid-level ridging over the Intermountain West and over the
Western Atlantic Basin will persist with a weakness persisting
over the Mid-South and Much of the Tennessee Valley Region.
Surface high pressure will be centered just to our east and
southeast as a weak surface boundary is draped from west to east
across the area loses definition

Skies will be partly cloudy through this time frame with isolated
showers and some thunderstorm activity across the southwest third
of the area on Sunday, followed by a small chance for lingering
showers across the southwest half of the area Sunday night.
Isolated showers and some storms are forecast across the southern
half of the area on Monday with best chances far south. Some
showers and perhaps a storm or two may linger across the southern
half of the area Monday night. Isolated to scattered showers with
some thunderstorms are forecast across the southeast half of the
area on Tuesday with better chances near and southeast of the
Interstate 85 corridor followed by some lingering showers and a
few storms possible Tuesday night.

Lows will range from near 70 northeast to the mid 70s south and
southwest Sunday morning followed by lows in the low to mid 70s
areawide Monday morning and Tuesday morning. Highs Sunday will
range from the mid 90s in the higher elevations east to near the
century mark or the lower elevations, especially south and west on
Monday and Tuesday. Heat index values will be near 105 degrees
across portions of the far west and far southern counties Sunday,
followed by readings near or over 105 degree across more of the
western half and southern third of the area on Monday then
becoming more widespread on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Thursday.

A longwave trough will dig southeast over much of the Western and
Central Great Lakes while a shortwave impulse is progged to
develop over the Central Plains and move east toward the Mid-South
Region on Thursday. Surface high pressure consolidates to the
southeast o the area as a surface front advances southeast across
the Central Plains and Midwest, nearing the state from the
northwest during the day on Thursday.

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday with better chances generally along and southeast of the
Interstate 59 corridor followed by isolated activity overnight.
Expect a higher chance of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms on Thursday areawide.

Lows Wednesday morning will remain in the mid 70s areawide
followed by readings Thursday morning from the lower 70s far north
and far east to the mid 70s elsewhere. Highs Wednesday will range
from the lower 90s in the higher elevations east to the mid and
upper 90s elsewhere. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 90s
far east in higher terrain to mid 90s across the rest of the area.
Heat index values will continue to meet or exceed 105 degrees
across much of the area Wednesday afternoon then becoming more
confined to the southwestern half of the area on Thursday.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024

Will continue to forecast VFR conditions through the next 24
hours. No obvious issues that would affect the terminals. Just a
light northwest wind that will pick up around 1500Z, and a few
cumulus during the afternoon.

Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN UFN due to missing ceilings.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air and rain free conditions will remain in place over
Central Alabama through Friday. Small shower & thunderstorm
chances return over the weekend, as low level moisture slowly
increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     96  70  98  71 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    94  71  96  71 /  10  10   0   0
Birmingham  96  73  98  74 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  96  72  98  73 /  10   0  10   0
Calera      96  73  98  74 /  10   0  10   0
Auburn      95  73  97  74 /  10   0  10   0
Montgomery  96  73  98  74 /  10   0  10   0
Troy        96  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...02