002
FXUS64 KBMX 121133
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
633 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024

Conditions are expected to remain dry across all of central
Alabama through tonight, and stay that way for most folks through
Saturday as well. Low surface dewpoints will keep diurnal
convection at bay for at least a couple more days. As heights
begin to increase across the area over the next 24 hours, we will
start to see a build up of heat once again. Thankfully, despite
high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s on Saturday, the lower
dewpoints should keep heat indices below advisory criteria.

/61/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024

Key Messages:
- High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s through Wednesday.
- Increasing humidity will produce heat index readings over 105
  degrees across portions of the area Monday through Thursday.

Sunday through Tuesday.

Mid-level ridging over the Intermountain West and over the
Western Atlantic Basin will persist with a weakness persisting
over the Mid-South and Much of the Tennessee Valley Region.
Surface high pressure will be centered just to our east and
southeast as a weak surface boundary is draped from west to east
across the area loses definition

Skies will be partly cloudy through this time frame with isolated
showers and some thunderstorm activity across the southwest third
of the area on Sunday, followed by a small chance for lingering
showers across the southwest half of the area Sunday night.
Isolated showers and some storms are forecast across the southern
half of the area on Monday with best chances far south. Some
showers and perhaps a storm or two may linger across the southern
half of the area Monday night. Isolated to scattered showers with
some thunderstorms are forecast across the southeast half of the
area on Tuesday with better chances near and southeast of the
Interstate 85 corridor followed by some lingering showers and a
few storms possible Tuesday night.

Lows will range from near 70 northeast to the mid 70s south and
southwest Sunday morning followed by lows in the low to mid 70s
areawide Monday morning and Tuesday morning. Highs Sunday will
range from the mid 90s in the higher elevations east to near the
century mark or the lower elevations, especially south and west on
Monday and Tuesday. Heat index values will be near 105 degrees
across portions of the far west and far southern counties Sunday,
followed by readings near or over 105 degree across more of the
western half and southern third of the area on Monday then
becoming more widespread on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Thursday.

A longwave trough will dig southeast over much of the Western and
Central Great Lakes while a shortwave impulse is progged to
develop over the Central Plains and move east toward the Mid-South
Region on Thursday. Surface high pressure consolidates to the
southeast o the area as a surface front advances southeast across
the Central Plains and Midwest, nearing the state from the
northwest during the day on Thursday.

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday with better chances generally along and southeast of the
Interstate 59 corridor followed by isolated activity overnight.
Expect a higher chance of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms on Thursday areawide.

Lows Wednesday morning will remain in the mid 70s areawide
followed by readings Thursday morning from the lower 70s far north
and far east to the mid 70s elsewhere. Highs Wednesday will range
from the lower 90s in the higher elevations east to the mid and
upper 90s elsewhere. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 90s
far east in higher terrain to mid 90s across the rest of the area.
Heat index values will continue to meet or exceed 105 degrees
across much of the area Wednesday afternoon then becoming more
confined to the southwestern half of the area on Thursday.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024

Some light fog at MGM should quickly burn off this morning. That
will leave VFR conditions across all central Alabama TAF sites
through the rest of the forecast period. Like prior days, just
some scattered cumulus expected during the afternoon.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air and rain free conditions will remain in place over
Central Alabama through Friday. Small shower & thunderstorm
chances return over the weekend, as low level moisture slowly
increases from the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     96  70  98  71 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    94  71  96  71 /  10  10   0   0
Birmingham  96  73  98  74 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  96  72  98  73 /  10   0  10   0
Calera      96  73  98  74 /  10   0  10   0
Auburn      95  73  97  74 /  10   0  10   0
Montgomery  96  73  98  74 /  10   0  10   0
Troy        96  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION.../61/