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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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711 FXUS64 KBMX 130804 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 304 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 251 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024 The big weather story for central Alabama in the foreseeable future will be the heat. An upper level ridge builds into the southeast states, which will help push high temperatures well into the 90s and close to triple digits over the weekend. Initially, dewpoints should be low enough today so that heat indices will stay below Heat Advisory criteria. However, dewpoints start creeping up on Sunday, and we will be borderline Advisory criteria. Will give things another model run or two to gain more confidence, before pulling the trigger on an Advisory for Sunday. The slow ramp up in dewpoints will also mean a similarly slow ramp up in convective coverage. Highest POPs over the weekend will be in the far south, which could see some seabreeze initiated storms in the late afternoons. /61/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 327 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024 Key messages: - Hot conditions continue Sunday into early next week, with increasing humidity levels. Heat indices at or above 105 will be possible Monday through Wednesday, with the highest values on Tuesday. - A wetter and less hot pattern develops for the latter half of the week. Two ridges remain in place on Sunday, once extending from the Gulf northeastward to southern AL and GA, and a stronger one near the Four Corners. A positively tilted weak trough/weakness in the ridge will extend from TN southwestward to the ArkLaTex. Another hot day is expected with temperatures near 100F but dew points should mix out enough to keep heat indices under 105 except in a couple isolated spots. Moisture will increase just enough for isolated convection in our southern counties, potentially up into our northwest counties with the weakness in the ridge. The Gulf ridge weakens somewhat Monday/Tuesday, with some spread in the guidance regarding the placement of weakness(es) to its northwest. This will play a role in chances for convection and high temperatures. But in general expect an uptick in scattered convection each day, with an increase in dew points resulting in potential for heat indices near 105, with the highest chances of exceeding 105 on Tuesday. A trough will amplify near the Great Lakes Wednesday through the end of the week, while a cold front approaches from the northwest. Pooling moisture will result in an increase in dew points and rain chances, but decreasing high temperatures, especially Thursday and Friday. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024 Will maintain VFR weather conditions for central Alabama terminals through at least the next 24 hour forecast period. Computer models continue to paint a dry picture across the area. Any thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon should stay well south of TCL and MGM. One or two places (ANB or MGM) could see some light fog development briefly before sunrise, but I just don`t have the confidence in that occurring to include it in the TAF for now. Otherwise, just scattered afternoon cumulus and light winds. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry conditions will remain in place through the weekend. Min RHs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 30 to 35 percent range, though winds should remain generally light to calm. Chances of isolated showers and storms return on Sunday, with a more humid air mass returning next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 97 71 98 72 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 96 73 97 73 / 0 0 20 10 Birmingham 97 76 98 76 / 0 0 20 10 Tuscaloosa 98 74 98 74 / 10 0 20 10 Calera 97 74 98 75 / 0 0 20 10 Auburn 97 74 97 75 / 10 10 20 10 Montgomery 99 74 99 75 / 10 10 30 10 Troy 98 74 98 74 / 20 10 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM.../61/ LONG TERM....32 AVIATION.../61/