711
FXUS64 KBMX 130804
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
304 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024

The big weather story for central Alabama in the foreseeable
future will be the heat. An upper level ridge builds into the
southeast states, which will help push high temperatures well into
the 90s and close to triple digits over the weekend. Initially,
dewpoints should be low enough today so that heat indices will
stay below Heat Advisory criteria. However, dewpoints start
creeping up on Sunday, and we will be borderline Advisory
criteria. Will give things another model run or two to gain more
confidence, before pulling the trigger on an Advisory for Sunday.
The slow ramp up in dewpoints will also mean a similarly slow
ramp up in convective coverage. Highest POPs over the weekend will
be in the far south, which could see some seabreeze initiated
storms in the late afternoons.

/61/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024

Key messages:

- Hot conditions continue Sunday into early next week, with
  increasing humidity levels. Heat indices at or above 105 will be
  possible Monday through Wednesday, with the highest values on
  Tuesday.

- A wetter and less hot pattern develops for the latter half of
  the week.

Two ridges remain in place on Sunday, once extending from the Gulf
northeastward to southern AL and GA, and a stronger one near the
Four Corners. A positively tilted weak trough/weakness in the
ridge will extend from TN southwestward to the ArkLaTex. Another
hot day is expected with temperatures near 100F but dew points
should mix out enough to keep heat indices under 105 except in a
couple isolated spots. Moisture will increase just enough for
isolated convection in our southern counties, potentially up into
our northwest counties with the weakness in the ridge. The Gulf
ridge weakens somewhat Monday/Tuesday, with some spread in the
guidance regarding the placement of weakness(es) to its northwest.
This will play a role in chances for convection and high
temperatures. But in general expect an uptick in scattered
convection each day, with an increase in dew points resulting in
potential for heat indices near 105, with the highest chances of
exceeding 105 on Tuesday. A trough will amplify near the Great
Lakes Wednesday through the end of the week, while a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Pooling moisture will result in an
increase in dew points and rain chances, but decreasing high
temperatures, especially Thursday and Friday.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024

Will maintain VFR weather conditions for central Alabama terminals
through at least the next 24 hour forecast period. Computer models
continue to paint a dry picture across the area. Any thunderstorm
development Saturday afternoon should stay well south of TCL and
MGM. One or two places (ANB or MGM) could see some light fog
development briefly before sunrise, but I just don`t have the
confidence in that occurring to include it in the TAF for now.
Otherwise, just scattered afternoon cumulus and light winds.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and dry conditions will remain in place through the weekend.
Min RHs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 30 to 35 percent
range, though winds should remain generally light to calm. Chances
of isolated showers and storms return on Sunday, with a more
humid air mass returning next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     97  71  98  72 /   0   0  10  10
Anniston    96  73  97  73 /   0   0  20  10
Birmingham  97  76  98  76 /   0   0  20  10
Tuscaloosa  98  74  98  74 /  10   0  20  10
Calera      97  74  98  75 /   0   0  20  10
Auburn      97  74  97  75 /  10  10  20  10
Montgomery  99  74  99  75 /  10  10  30  10
Troy        98  74  98  74 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION.../61/