545
FXUS64 KBMX 150009
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
709 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024

Convective activity is ongoing early this afternoon in response to
increased moisture both at the surface and aloft, along with a
weak 500mb shortwave centered near Memphis. Most convective
activity is currently located closer to the main shortwave trough
across the western and northwest counties. We do have a little
westerly shear aloft around 20 knots, with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg
across our far northwest counties. Visible satellite is actually
showing the cu fields developing close to ridge line locations
with orographic lift of parcels ongoing as well. With plenty of
heating expected this afternoon, some of these storms could
contain gusty winds and frequent lightning as highs top out in the
upper 90s to near 100 degrees areawide. Scattered storms will
remain in the forecast for the rest of the afternoon and into the
early evening across the western half of Central Alabama before
diminishing overnight. Heat indices are still on track to remain
mostly below Heat Advisory this afternoon, but rise between 100
and 104 degrees areawide. A few spots could briefly hit 105, but
not widespread enough for an advisory. Still very hot regardless,
so folks need to continue to take precautions to avoid heat
related illness.

Warm and muggy conditions are expected overnight tonight with
lows only dropping into the low and mid 70s. With moisture levels
ever so slightly increasing, we`ll see additional scattered to
perhaps numerous showers and storms once again Monday afternoon.
Actual high temperatures will be a degree or two lower than today,
but higher dewpoints in the lower 70s will lead to similar heat
indices between 100 and 104. Currently locations along and south
of the I-85 corridor would have the best chance of seeing 105 or
greater heat indices for more than an hour, so will currently hold
off on issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024

A wetter pattern is expected for much of the week as troughing
sets up over the region with moist southwesterly flow. Will have
a couple more days, Tuesday and Wednesday, with heat indices
nearing 105F before scattered to numerous convective coverage
develops during the afternoon. For the end of the week, the
frontal boundary mentioned in the previous discussion will stall
over the area, keeping rain chances elevated but temperatures in
the 80s and lower 90s.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024

A low amplitude upper-level flow is expected on Tuesday with two mid-
level ridges; one situated near the Four Corners and one north of
The Bahamas. A broad based trough is progged to continue advancement
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Meanwhile, a
weakness/trough aloft will stretch from eastern Texas through the
Tennessee Valley which will feature embedded vorticity maxima
resultant from what appears to be barotropic instability. These
features aloft appear to align with an area of southerly to
southwesterly sfc-850 mb flow where favorable boundary layer
moisture will reside, supporting afternoon convection. These
factors considered, I`ve kept a 40-60% PoP for Tuesday afternoon,
and this will essentially kick off a period of more increasing
rain chances that could easily stick around through the weekend.
The aforementioned trough will be the main player, along with an
associated polar front that advances south toward our area by
Thursday. Enhanced tropospheric moisture will remain present
across the Deep South along with the synoptic trough now
encompassing the central CONUS. The stalled, remnant surface
front should be somewhere in our region as well, likely suppressed
along/north of the coast. Additionally, latest medium-range
guidance suggests a favorable positioning of an upper-level jet
streak that could maintain above-average convective coverage and
below-average daytime temperatures into the weekend. This would
certainly be a beneficial weather pattern to alleviate our recent,
expanding drought.

Though there`s nothing in particular standing out in guidance, the
(occasional) presence of 20-30 kts mid-level flow and the
persistent favorable environment for daily convection suggests
the possibility of locally heavy rain and/or a stronger storm
later this week.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2024

Convection is winding down for the evening. We could get -SHRA at
TCL for a few more hours with some decaying storms approaching
from MS. I have a tempo thru 3z to account for this. Otherwise,
mid level cloud cover should linger overnight with light/variable
to near calm winds. More expansive SHRA and TSRA are expected for
Mon afternoon with mentions for all and winds outside of convection
generally SW 5-7kts with mixing.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain coverage increases each day this week, as moisture increases
with the approach of a front. Scattered to numerous convective
coverage can be expected both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Min
RHs Monday will be in the 40 to 50 percent range, with light to
calm 20ft winds. Minimum RH values will be above 50 percent
beginning Tuesday, with southwesterly 20ft winds at 4-6mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  96  71  95 /  20  50  20  60
Anniston    73  95  73  93 /  20  60  30  60
Birmingham  75  95  74  94 /  20  60  20  60
Tuscaloosa  74  95  74  94 /  30  60  20  60
Calera      74  95  74  93 /  30  60  30  60
Auburn      75  95  74  92 /  20  50  30  60
Montgomery  75  97  74  95 /  20  60  30  70
Troy        73  97  73  94 /  20  60  30  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....14/40/Sizemore
AVIATION...08