286
FXUS64 KBMX 200121
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
821 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 742 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2024

Several features were acting in concert to produce showers and
thunderstorms over the area this evening. A quasi-stationary front
was located in the vicinity of I-20 draped west to east. Another
trough was located west to east near the southern end of the
area. Aloft, the main longwave trough remains west of the area
while a short wave trough was interacting with the front and ample
moisture. It appears there is a low over Mississippi that will
also aide forcing and lift. A large part of Central Alabama will
receive rainfall overnight with a few places receiving 2-3 inches
in a short period of time. Made some adjustments to the pop areas
overnight, with a gradual decrease west. It appears that rain
chances remain quite high on Saturday. The quasi-stationary front
should remain just immediately north and we stay in the high
moisture zone. Some leftover boundary interactions, potential
instability, and a continual supply of deep moisture will give
most locations rain on Saturday.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2024

Tonight.

Little change in the synoptic pattern is forecast as robust
ridging prevails out west and the longwave trough lingers over the
Mid-South. More disturbances are forecast to move northeast over
the area, resulting in continued mid and upper-level support for
lingering showers and a few storms overnight. The diffuse surface
front looks to stall across the area tonight before lifting back
northward as a warm front overnight. Coinciding with this
movement, some broad general consensus is noted among the
available modeling members for higher PoPs generally along the
more populated Interstate 20 corridor. Training activity will need
to be monitored for potential localized water ponding and pooling
in poor drainage areas.

Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight with lingering showers and
some thunderstorms across the area. Some patchy fog will be
possible across the northern portions of the area before sunrise
on Saturday. Winds will become southeast at 3-6 mph overnight. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 60s north to the low 70s
south.

Saturday.

Longwave mid-level troughing will persist over the Mid and Lower
Mississippi River Valley Region on Saturday. More mid-level
disturbances are depicted to move east over the south-central
portions of the area through the day. The surface front will
remain to the north and west of the area during the day Saturday.

Look for mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and some
thunderstorms across the area, becoming numerous during the
afternoon and into the early evening with highest chances across
the southeast half of the area. Winds will be from the south at
4-9 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s far north
and in the higher terrain east to the upper 90s far west and far
south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2024

Above average rain chances are expected to continue into the next
week as we remain in this anomalously active blocking pattern.
Central Alabama will be trapped in between broad ridging extending
west from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico, and broad
troughing extending south from the Great Lakes region into the
Southern Plains. This will place us within a continuous stream of
moist, southwesterly flow which will favor daily opportunities for
scattered to numerous showers and storms and temperatures that
will likely stay in the 80s each day. The activity should
generally favor diurnal trends in which the highest coverage will
be during the afternoon, but some showers could be ongoing each
morning as well due to the upper-level support from the trough.
There are signals that the trough could begin to break down
towards the end of the week as the ridge slowly builds westward
which could bring our daily PoPs back down to more seasonable
ranges beyond the next 7 days.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2024

All terminals will remain on the warm side of a quasi-stationary
front through Saturday. Several features will supply moisture and
lift to the area. Therefore, showers and thunderstorms will be
widespread leaving a rather chaotic sky. Have showers/storms
mentioned virtually the entire period in some way at several
terminals. There will be a period where ceilings and vis will drop
to MVFR/IFR mainly between 10-15z. The ceilings will slowly rise
throughout the day Saturday outside convection. Some of the storms
may produce very heavy rain and reduce vis to LIFR. Winds will be
light and somewhat variable overnight. Some places may maintain a
southeast component. Then on Saturday, Winds will keep a southerly
component at 5-10kts.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A rainy pattern is expected to continue through the weekend and
into the early part of next week. Generally light winds expected
aside from thunderstorm wind gusts. The humid airmass will keep
minimum relative humidity values in the 60 to 80 percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  85  70  85 /  50  70  40  70
Anniston    70  84  72  83 /  70  70  60  70
Birmingham  71  85  72  85 /  70  70  40  70
Tuscaloosa  71  87  73  85 /  70  70  40  70
Calera      70  84  72  84 /  70  70  50  70
Auburn      71  87  72  85 /  50  70  60  70
Montgomery  72  87  73  86 /  50  70  50  70
Troy        72  88  72  87 /  40  70  50  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....86/Martin
AVIATION...75