273
FXUS64 KBMX 200844
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
344 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 742 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2024

Several features were acting in concert to produce showers and
thunderstorms over the area this evening. A quasi-stationary front
was located in the vicinity of I-20 draped west to east. Another
trough was located west to east near the southern end of the
area. Aloft, the main longwave trough remains west of the area
while a short wave trough was interacting with the front and ample
moisture. It appears there is a low over Mississippi that will
also aide forcing and lift. A large part of Central Alabama will
receive rainfall overnight with a few places receiving 2-3 inches
in a short period of time. Made some adjustments to the pop areas
overnight, with a gradual decrease west. It appears that rain
chances remain quite high on Saturday. The quasi-stationary front
should remain just immediately north and we stay in the high
moisture zone. Some leftover boundary interactions, potential
instability, and a continual supply of deep moisture will give
most locations rain on Saturday.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2024

Tonight.

Little change in the synoptic pattern is forecast as robust
ridging prevails out west and the longwave trough lingers over the
Mid-South. More disturbances are forecast to move northeast over
the area, resulting in continued mid and upper-level support for
lingering showers and a few storms overnight. The diffuse surface
front looks to stall across the area tonight before lifting back
northward as a warm front overnight. Coinciding with this
movement, some broad general consensus is noted among the
available modeling members for higher PoPs generally along the
more populated Interstate 20 corridor. Training activity will need
to be monitored for potential localized water ponding and pooling
in poor drainage areas.

Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight with lingering showers and
some thunderstorms across the area. Some patchy fog will be
possible across the northern portions of the area before sunrise
on Saturday. Winds will become southeast at 3-6 mph overnight. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 60s north to the low 70s
south.

Saturday.

Longwave mid-level troughing will persist over the Mid and Lower
Mississippi River Valley Region on Saturday. More mid-level
disturbances are depicted to move east over the south-central
portions of the area through the day. The surface front will
remain to the north and west of the area during the day Saturday.

Look for mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and some
thunderstorms across the area, becoming numerous during the
afternoon and into the early evening with highest chances across
the southeast half of the area. Winds will be from the south at
4-9 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s far north
and in the higher terrain east to the upper 90s far west and far
south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2024

Very little change is expected in the overall pattern for much of
the upcoming week. The persistent trough through the Central US will
remain in place leading to at least some upper level forcing and
moisture transport across the region. This will lead to slightly
more active diurnal thunderstorm activity each day Monday through
Friday. High temperatures will be moderated somewhat, limited to the
80s to low 90s each day depending on exact timing and placement of
thunderstorms.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2024

We remain in a wet and unsettled pattern through the TAF period.
We are currently at our slow point for the forecast. To start
there are some TSRA in the east parts of C AL that are moving NE
TWD GA. Have a TSRA tempo for ANB thru 9z. However, guidance is
showing multiple waves of SHRA/TSRA off/on thru the forecast with
the most widespread activity expected this afternoon. We have
MVFR stratus already at ASN/ANB and some lower IFR stratus at TCL.
This stratus should fill in some with BHM/EET getting at least
MVFR stratus over the next couple of hours. At this time left out
at MGM outside of convection. Winds should be fairly light outside
of convection. If you have enough mixing for 5-7kts, then S-SE
should be the direction.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A rainy pattern is expected to continue through the weekend and
into the early part of next week. Generally light winds expected
aside from thunderstorm wind gusts. The humid airmass will keep
minimum relative humidity values in the 60 to 80 percent range.
Fog development is possible each night, especially in areas that
saw rain during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  68  86  67 /  70  50  70  50
Anniston    84  71  85  70 /  70  60  70  60
Birmingham  84  71  86  70 /  70  50  70  50
Tuscaloosa  86  72  87  70 /  70  40  70  40
Calera      85  72  86  71 /  70  50  70  50
Auburn      84  72  85  71 /  70  70  70  60
Montgomery  87  72  88  71 /  70  60  70  50
Troy        87  70  88  70 /  70  60  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...08