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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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162 FXUS64 KBMX 150848 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 347 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2024 We will see a touch more moisture around today, especially in the west and south. This combined with temperatures in the mid 90s will likely result in Heat Indices at 105 to 106 across the south before the coverage of the clouds and rain increase. As for shower and storms coverage will be a little bit more than normal with coverage of 40 to 60 percent this afternoon. Showers and storms will continue through the early evening before dissipating overnight. Almost a repeat performance on Tuesday, but dewpoints will be even higher and there is a bigger area that may see Heat Advisory criteria before the rain sets up. 16&& .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 347 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2024 A more amplified pattern will take shape mid week as a broad mid- to upper-level trough encompasses much of the eastern CONUS. This will feature an associated cold front that is forecast to advance south toward the Tennessee Valley late Wednesday into Thursday. As such, increasing moisture along/ahead of the front will generally support an increased presence of convection these days. PoPs remain 60-70% for Wed, and increase to 70-80% for Thu as PWs range 1.9 to 2.3" by then. While best flow aloft will remain to our north these days, the additional forcing and slight increase in mid-level flow could result in a stronger storm or two, considering ample boundary layer moisture and afternoon instability. Thereafter, the surface front is progged to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast region, becoming more diffuse as well. However, it will continue to provide focus for enhanced convective coverage into the weekend with indication that low-level flow remains southerly/southwesterly in our area. Some additional support aloft is expected from a jet streak positioning to our north along with potential flow-embedded shortwaves. Thus, the overall synoptic picture for the period suggests we`ll see beneficial rain and a break from excessive heat, despite what could be muggy afternoons/evenings with locally heavy rainfall. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2024 Mid level cloud cover should linger with light/variable to near calm winds through the morning. More than normal coverage in the afternoon of showers and storms (40 to 60 percent) at all sites. Winds outside of convection generally SW 5-7 kts with mixing. Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN UFN due to missing ceilings. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain coverage increases each day this week, as moisture increases with the approach of a front Wednesday into Thursday. Scattered to numerous convective coverage can be expected both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Min RHs Monday will be in the 40 to 50 percent range, with light to calm 20 ft winds. Minimum RH values will be above 50 percent beginning Tuesday, with southwesterly 20 ft winds at 4-6mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 71 95 72 / 60 30 50 20 Anniston 93 73 93 74 / 60 40 60 30 Birmingham 94 74 95 75 / 50 30 50 20 Tuscaloosa 94 73 96 74 / 40 20 50 20 Calera 94 73 94 75 / 50 40 60 20 Auburn 94 73 91 74 / 60 50 60 30 Montgomery 96 74 95 74 / 60 40 60 30 Troy 95 73 94 74 / 60 40 60 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas- Elmore-Greene-Hale-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pike- Russell-Sumter. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....40/Sizemore AVIATION...16