097
FXUS64 KBMX 160603
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
103 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2024

Convective development has begun this afternoon across western
portions of the area amidst a relative PWAT maximum of 2 inches and
downstream of weak mid-level troughing extending southwest from the
Ohio Valley into the Lower MS River Valley. Since moisture has been
steadily increasing over the past couple of days, it seems we`re in
a position to see at least scattered to numerous showers and storms
both today and tomorrow during peak heating hours, especially with
the weak cyclonic flow associated with the trough. A few strong
storms could develop producing mainly isolated downbursts, but
nothing out of the ordinary for summertime convection.

Additionally, heat remains a concern as the moist airmass is
resulting in humid conditions and low to mid 70s dewpoints. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect across southern portions of the area this
afternoon, but temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer
tomorrow. Will begin looking at extending and expanding the Heat
Advisory for tomorrow afternoon as heat indices look to reach 105F
for a good portion of our south and west. Still expecting showers
and storms to develop, so that could help to bring temperatures down
for some areas by mid to late afternoon. A general lull in activity
is expected tonight, but it will be humid with lows in the lower to
mid 70s.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2024

Long term forecast is on track and lines up well with latest model
trends. Looking at an wet pattern with southwesterly flow through
a deep layer of the atmosphere. With a front approaching and
stalling over the area, elevated rain chances can be expected
through early next week. One trade off - cooler temperatures by
the weekend, with no heat advisories needed beyond Thursday.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2024

A more amplified pattern will take shape mid week as a broad mid- to
upper-level trough encompasses much of the eastern CONUS. This will
feature an associated cold front that is forecast to advance south
toward the Tennessee Valley late Wednesday into Thursday. As such,
increasing moisture along/ahead of the front will generally support
an increased presence of convection these days. PoPs remain 60-70%
for Wed, and increase to 70-80% for Thu as PWs range 1.9 to 2.3" by
then. While best flow aloft will remain to our north these days, the
additional forcing and slight increase in mid-level flow could
result in a stronger storm or two, considering ample boundary layer
moisture and afternoon instability. Thereafter, the surface front is
progged to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast region, becoming more
diffuse as well. However, it will continue to provide focus for
enhanced convective coverage into the weekend with indication that
low-level flow remains southerly/southwesterly in our area. Some
additional support aloft is expected from a jet streak positioning
to our north along with potential flow-embedded shortwaves. Thus,
the overall synoptic picture for the period suggests we`ll see
beneficial rain and a break from excessive heat, despite what could
be muggy afternoons/evenings with locally heavy rainfall.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2024

The forecast will pretty much be a rinse and repeat for the next
24 hours. Best coverage will be across the south and east, so MGM
in the afternoon/early evening.

Through sunrise, some patchy fog/low clouds will be possible,
especially at ANB. By the afternoon showers and storms will
develop and affect all terminals. Some gusty winds and small hail
are again possible. Adjusted the PROB30 to 21z with VCSH after 18z
Ceilings will generally be around 4 to 5 kft when they develop.
Winds will be light and variable overnight and west to southwest
5-10 kts after 18z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain coverage increases each day this week, as moisture increases
with the approach of a front Wednesday into Thursday. Scattered
to numerous convective coverage can be expected Tuesday afternoon.
Minimum RH values will be near or above 50 percent beginning
Tuesday, with southwesterly 20 ft winds at 4-6mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  72  94  70 /  40  20  80  50
Anniston    93  74  91  72 /  50  30  80  50
Birmingham  95  75  94  73 /  40  20  70  50
Tuscaloosa  96  74  93  73 /  40  20  70  50
Calera      94  75  93  73 /  40  30  70  50
Auburn      92  74  91  73 /  60  20  70  40
Montgomery  95  74  95  73 /  60  30  70  40
Troy        94  74  95  73 /  60  20  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for the following counties: Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Fayette-Jefferson-
Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Shelby-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-
Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Russell-Sumter.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...16