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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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237 FXUS64 KBMX 180116 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 816 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 703 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2024 Radar rainfall estimates indicate a large part of Central Alabama received rainfall again today. Several boundaries were present over the area that aided the thunderstorm initiation. Due to these numerous boundaries, the surface has become stable and much of the activity has trended downward. There are a few more boundaries that are present across the northern part of Alabama that are ahead of a surface cold front. These boundaries may provide enough lift for additional showers and thunderstorms overnight. Overall, little changes to the ongoing forecast. The best rain chances will be in the northwest. An upper level short wave rotates around the longwave trough and over Central Alabama on Thursday. This will also be in the vicinity of the surface front and numerous other smaller scale boundaries. With moisture values remaining high, instability high, and lift good, numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated and initiating by midday. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2024 As expected, earlier initiation of scattered to numerous showers and storms has begun. An upper-level low positioned over eastern Texas is dampening the ridge and resulting in some weak low-level troughing over the Lower MS River Valley. West to southwesterly flow is providing ample moisture across the Deep South which is providing the means for higher than normal PoPs. A cold front will also move southeast into the area overnight and through tomorrow associated with a low pressure system over eastern Quebec. The front will provide additional lift for widespread showers and storms tomorrow. DCAPE is hovering around 800-1000 J/kg, but could be as high as 1100 J/kg in some areas, so storms will likely be gusty and could produce some isolated tree damage. Heavy downpours are also expected and rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches could fall in a short period of time. The enhanced coverage of rainfall should help to bring heat indices down despite dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Will continue the Heat Advisory in the west for now, but may be able to cancel it early as storms continue to expand this afternoon. Shouldn`t need a Heat Advisory tomorrow with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2024 Guidance indicates a pattern over the coming days that will support PWAT values near 2.00" (the Wednesday 12z BMX sounding showed a PWAT of 1.92"). This, combined with ripples within a trough axis extending across the region and a nearby front, will promote spells of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should seemingly be maximized during the influence of daytime heating. Minor flooding could occur, in isolated instances, for locations that are dealt repeated rounds of downpours or a slow-moving cell. Increased cloud cover and convective activity should hold daily high temperatures in the 80s on average across central Alabama, with low temperatures near 70. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2024 Convection was diminishing at this writing. Showers and thunderstorms are possible over Central Alabama overnight, but these appear to be away from most of the terminals. The lower levels of the atmosphere have a slight increase in moisture and the sounding look closer to saturation than previous nights. Will add some mention of MVFR ceilings around sunrise to all terminals and will monitor for potential brief IFR ceilings in the worst case scenario. Winds overnight will be light. On Thursday, a front approaches from the northwest. Ceilings will eventually develop along with convection. Rain chances are high and will likely be mentioned as a minimum tempo group in future issuances. Winds around 6kts with a westerly component. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Each day will offer an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms across central Alabama. Fire weather elements are not expected to be approached or exceeded over the coming days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 69 89 67 83 / 40 70 40 60 Anniston 72 88 69 83 / 40 70 50 70 Birmingham 72 89 70 83 / 40 70 50 70 Tuscaloosa 73 90 70 83 / 40 80 60 70 Calera 73 89 71 83 / 40 80 60 80 Auburn 73 90 71 84 / 40 80 60 80 Montgomery 73 93 72 86 / 40 80 70 90 Troy 72 93 70 87 / 40 80 70 90 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...75