745
FXUS64 KBMX 201802
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
102 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2024

This afternoon.

Expansive mid-level ridging remains centered out west over Nevada
while broad troughing in the mid levels was present over much of
the Mid-South Region while a shortwave impulse was moving east
over the Central Plains to over the Mid Mississippi River Valley
Region. Locally, RAP 13 km mesoanalysis depicts a potent shortwave
over our eastern counties that supported the showers and storms
that developed and moved northeast across the area earlier this
morning. A few weaker disturbances were depicted back to the west
our our area. A surface front extended from near Memphis south
along much of the Lower Mississippi River while a warm front
extended northeast across the Tennessee Valley Region into
Virginia.

The better mid and upper level support will continue to be over
our eastern counties while coastal convection will continue to
move inland, resulting in more cloud cover with the greater PoPs
across the southeast half of the area this afternoon. There will
be at least an isolated coverage of showers with some
thunderstorms across our west and northwest, where there are some
breaks in the clouds on satellite and where a few weak
disturbances aloft will move east over later today. A nearly
saturated vertical profile is forecast across the area this
afternoon, which will continue to support showers and storms that
can produce very efficient rainfall rates over an inch an hour.
Urban and poor drainage locations that experience multiple storms
over a short period of time may see ponding of water in spots.
Winds will be from the south to southwest at 3-6 mph. Highs will
range from the lower 80s in the higher elevations east and
northeast to the upper 80s across the far south and far west.

Tonight.

A more southwest flow aloft will develop over the area tonight as
an upper low develops over the Midwest while persistent ridging
amplifies further over much of the Intermountain West. The surface
front will gradually drift southeast further, moving into the far
northwest portion of the state after midnight.

Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight with chances for lingering
showers and some thunderstorms highest across areas roughly
between the Interstate 20 and Interstate 85 corridors, with lower
chances elsewhere. We will need to continue to watch urban and
poor drainage areas that experience repeated activity for water
ponding. Winds will be from the south at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures
will range from the upper 60s far north and far northeast to the
low 70s south and west.

Sunday.

Broad troughing will persist in the mid levels just to our west
over much of the Mid-South and Central Plains on Sunday. The
surface front looks to make very little further progress
southeastward, remaining across the northwest corner of the state.

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected across
much of the area with better potential across our southeast
counties. Winds will be from the southwest at 4-8 mph. Highs will
range from the low 80s in the higher elevations north and east to
the upper 80s far south and west.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2024

Very little change is expected in the overall pattern for much of
the upcoming week. The persistent trough through the Central US will
remain in place leading to at least some upper level forcing and
moisture transport across the region. This will lead to slightly
more active diurnal thunderstorm activity each day Monday through
Friday. High temperatures will be moderated somewhat, limited to the
80s to low 90s each day depending on exact timing and placement of
thunderstorms.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2024

An unsettled pattern will persist through this forecast cycle
with scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorm activity
this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm potential will be best
near MGM through mid afternoon with much of the activity expected
across the southeast half of the area. Lower chances for showers
and a few storms will persist across the rest of the area through
the afternoon and into early evening. Overnight, expect best
chances for lingering showers and a few storms across the east and
southeast portions of the area. Some patchy fog may develop
across portions of the north and east portion of the area before
sunrise Sunday, followed by increased chances for showers and
storms areawide toward the end of this forecast period.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A rainy pattern is expected to continue through the weekend and
into the early part of next week. Generally light winds expected
aside from thunderstorm wind gusts. The humid airmass will keep
minimum relative humidity values in the 60 to 80 percent range.
Fog development is possible each night, especially in areas that
saw rain during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  84  70  85 /  60  70  50  60
Anniston    70  83  71  85 /  70  70  60  60
Birmingham  72  84  72  85 /  60  70  50  60
Tuscaloosa  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  40  60
Calera      70  84  72  86 /  70  70  50  60
Auburn      70  83  72  85 /  70  70  50  60
Montgomery  72  86  72  87 /  70  70  50  60
Troy        71  87  72  87 /  60  70  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...05