044
FXUS64 KBMX 190025
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
725 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 651 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024

Thunderstorm initiation was a bit behind the past several days,
but the rain coverage ended up pretty high near and south of I-59
to north of I-85. Storms are still ongoing early this
evening mainly over the southeastern half of the area. There was
a cold front nearing the area and it was a bit tricky to actually
identify it. Certainly there is effective front/trough just
entering Marion County with much drier air north, but the overall
frontogenetic forcing appears to be near and just south of I-20.
A few boundaries south of that. These storms actually produced a
few microbursts today as DCAPE was rather high 1000+. Made some
pop adjustments based on radar for this evening. Still
anticipating an upper level short wave just ahead of the main
upper trough to move over after midnight. This will provide some
additional lift as the front sags southward. Therefore, pops after
06z look good. High coverage remain on tap for Friday as the
boundary becomes quasi- stationary and meander north and south.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024

Generally low-amplitude troughing extends southwest from Quebec into
the ArkLaTex region. At the surface, a cold front extends south
along the Eastern Seaboard before continuing west across northern
Alabama and towards Texas. A large surface ridge is building over
the Midwest associated with a 596dm ridge over the Desert
Southwest. This orientation continues to place Central Alabama
within a zone of deep west-southwesterly flow with moist
conditions in place across the Southeast. The combination of
surface heating, convergence along the weak front, and lift from
the troughing to our west will contribute to above average PoPs
both today and tomorrow. Highest chances are still focused during
the afternoon hours, but some activity may linger into the
evening.

Currently, the cu field is beginning to develop and some showers and
thunderstorms are forming to our north and west, but convection
really hasn`t initiated quite as early as it did yesterday. Still
expecting coverage to increase over the next few hours, and the
storms will likely be gusty again today. The front will stall
across the area tomorrow, and widespread showers and storms are
expected again by the afternoon. The higher PoPs will result in
highs in the 80s to lower 90s, so heat will not be as much of a
concern as it has been over the past week.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024

Upper level flow during the long term portion of the forecast will
continue to support diurnal convection of probably greater than
climo levels of coverage. Low level moisture levels will remain
elevated, and PWAT values certainly indicate good rain chances
most days. Having said that, I`m having a hard time justifying the
75-95 percent POPs that the national model blend advertises each
afternoon. I think there`s been more than several occasions
already this summer where the model POPs were vastly overdone
(take today for example). If I could, I would love to be able to
pick out which days were more likely to get higher convective
coverage and forecast those days accordingly. But so much depends
on mesoscale trends this time of year, and trying to time
mesoscale events out in the long term just isn`t in the state of
the science. So, we`ll go with a more broad brushed day to day
forecast, with chance to slight chance POPs overnight, to high
chance and likely POPs each afternoon. As for temperatures, the
increased cloud cover and the higher than climo rain coverage
should keep highs in check, near or just below seasonal normals.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024

Convection early this evening was generally on the downward trend
in most areas. Did keep a Tempo or VCTS in a few eastern
terminals. More lift/forcing enters the picture after 06z and may
have to increase rain mention by 12z or so. There is the potential
a widespread area moves in after 12z. Thunderstorms are
anticipated almost at any time. Held onto the notion that some
MVFR/IFR ceilings will develop in the vicinity of a stalled front
early Friday morning along with brief patchy fog. Then held onto
rain chances as the area should see good coverage of rain/storms
on Friday. Winds will generally become light and variable
overnight and variable direction around 5kts on Friday as the
front meanders north and south with time.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist and unsettled weather pattern will continue across the
area through the next several days, with good chances of showers
and thunderstorms expected each day. No critical fire weather
conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  83  66  85 /  30  80  80  60
Anniston    71  83  69  84 /  50  80  80  70
Birmingham  71  83  69  85 /  50  80  70  60
Tuscaloosa  72  83  69  85 /  50  80  70  60
Calera      72  83  70  85 /  60  90  80  70
Auburn      71  86  71  85 /  80  90  70  70
Montgomery  72  88  71  87 /  50  90  70  70
Troy        71  89  69  87 /  50  90  70  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...75