152
FXUS64 KBMX 190851
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
351 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 651 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024

Thunderstorm initiation was a bit behind the past several days,
but the rain coverage ended up pretty high near and south of I-59
to north of I-85. Storms are still ongoing early this
evening mainly over the southeastern half of the area. There was
a cold front nearing the area and it was a bit tricky to actually
identify it. Certainly there is effective front/trough just
entering Marion County with much drier air north, but the overall
frontogenetic forcing appears to be near and just south of I-20.
A few boundaries south of that. These storms actually produced a
few microbursts today as DCAPE was rather high 1000+. Made some
pop adjustments based on radar for this evening. Still
anticipating an upper level short wave just ahead of the main
upper trough to move over after midnight. This will provide some
additional lift as the front sags southward. Therefore, pops after
06z look good. High coverage remain on tap for Friday as the
boundary becomes quasi- stationary and meander north and south.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024

Generally low-amplitude troughing extends southwest from Quebec into
the ArkLaTex region. At the surface, a cold front extends south
along the Eastern Seaboard before continuing west across northern
Alabama and towards Texas. A large surface ridge is building over
the Midwest associated with a 596dm ridge over the Desert
Southwest. This orientation continues to place Central Alabama
within a zone of deep west-southwesterly flow with moist
conditions in place across the Southeast. The combination of
surface heating, convergence along the weak front, and lift from
the troughing to our west will contribute to above average PoPs
both today and tomorrow. Highest chances are still focused during
the afternoon hours, but some activity may linger into the
evening.

Currently, the cu field is beginning to develop and some showers and
thunderstorms are forming to our north and west, but convection
really hasn`t initiated quite as early as it did yesterday. Still
expecting coverage to increase over the next few hours, and the
storms will likely be gusty again today. The front will stall
across the area tomorrow, and widespread showers and storms are
expected again by the afternoon. The higher PoPs will result in
highs in the 80s to lower 90s, so heat will not be as much of a
concern as it has been over the past week.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2024

Sunday through Thursday.

The rainy pattern is expected to continue through much of the
upcoming week with higher than normal rain chances each afternoon.
Broad troughing stretches from the Great Lakes through the ArkLaTex
with high pressure to our southeast. This will allow for effective
deep-layer moisture flow with enough upper level forcing to allow
for the development of thunderstorms each day across Central AL. The
coverage of the diurnal convection will be higher than typical given
the upper level forcing. I`ve gone with roughly 60-70% chance for
thunderstorms each afternoon, decreasing to 20-40% overnight for
pretty much every day in the extended forecast. I think there will
be some days where coverage is a little less than this and some days
where it may be more, but discerning those details this far in
advance is difficult, so expect some changes to the forecast as each
day gets into range of higher resolution model guidance. The good
news is that with the increased coverage of rain/storms,
temperatures each afternoon should remain in the 80s to low 90s.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2024

MVFR cigs are either occurring or expected to develop over the
next few hours across C AL and remain for the majority of the
forecast. Vsbys will be generally dependent on any heavy rain.
Winds should be light outside of any stronger convection. We will
continue in a wet pattern with off/on waves of convection thanks
to a lingering stationary boundary in the area and upper shortwave
activity across the Deep South around the base of a longwave E
Conus upper trough.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A rainy pattern is expected to continue through the weekend and
into the early part of next week. Generally light winds expected
aside from thunderstorm wind/gusts. The humid airmass will keep
MinRHs in the 60-80% range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  66  85  68 /  70  70  60  70
Anniston    83  69  84  70 /  40  50  70  70
Birmingham  83  69  85  71 /  50  70  60  70
Tuscaloosa  83  69  85  71 /  60  60  60  60
Calera      83  70  85  71 /  50  50  70  70
Auburn      86  71  85  71 /  60  30  70  60
Montgomery  88  71  87  71 /  50  40  70  60
Troy        89  69  87  70 /  70  40  70  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...08