957
FXUS64 KBMX 062109
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
409 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Quasi-stationary front was located from near Mt Cheaha to the
southern Birmingham Metro to near Demopolis. Showers and
thunderstorms initiated near this boundary early this afternoon.
Outflow boundaries from these storms has moved both north and
south. Therefore, have increased pops to categorical for a large
part of the area the remainder of the afternoon. Also increased
pops early this evening south. MUCAPE values range from 2000-4000
and some wind shear was showing up today around 20kts. Lapse
rates are on the poor side due to a warm column and precipitable
water values around 2.3 inches. Downdraft CAPE is not too
impressive except maybe for far southeastern areas. Therefore, the
stronger storms may produce a brief wind gust. The main concern
will be torrential downpours. Some locations may receive 1-2
inches in a short period of time with a maximum of 4 inches or so.
Can not rule out some minor flooding episodes through early
evening. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas southeast
through Sunday. With highs reaching the mid 90s, heat indices did
touch the 105 to 110 mark. The thunderstorm outflows have cooled
things down a bit, but muggy and warm to hot conditions continue
through dark.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

A boundary draped over the state is allowing thunderstorms to
develop, with continued development expected through the afternoon
and evening. Though scattered showers could develop north of this
boundary, the main focus should be the southern half of the state
where instabilities will be around 3000 to 3500 J/kg. Winds will
be light, so any storm won`t be encouraged to move quickly. With
PW values max for this time of year, and light steering winds,
localized flooding may be possible in any slow moving and training
thunderstorms. Damaging winds are possible in any stronger
thunderstorms as well.

Tonight, activity should weaken and decrease in coverage
through the night, with fog development possible overnight. Models
are not holding on to this boundary moving any large distance
through the next 24 hours, so scattered to numerous activity is
possible again across the southern half of the state Sunday late
morning through the late afternoon.

With the northern half of the area expected to be under northwest
flow (being north of the boundary), will leave the Heat Advisory
valid for the southeastern counties now through Sunday evening.
If the boundary does meander, the counties in the Advisory might
need to be adjusted.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Main concern through the long term portion of the forecast will
be watching what the eventual remnants of "Beryl" do. Latest
official forecast has the remnant low moving toward the confluence
of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, and the computer models are
coming into better agreement in moving the (weakening) low
northeast after that. Central Alabama will remain in a deep moist
tropical regime, characterized by high precipitable water values,
through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected early in the
week, with peak convective coverage coming in the late afternoons.
Interestingly, as mentioned in the previous long term discussion,
"Beryl`s" remnants may actually cause a bit of a dry slot across
our area on Wednesday -- which is currently depicted in the medium
range models. This could actually lead to fewer but stronger
thunderstorms in this time frame. Beyond Wednesday, forecast
uncertainly increases and the forecast returns to a largely climo-
flavored variety.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
KEET should be the northern most extent of the majority of the
activity, with only VCSH included in TAF sites north of KEET
through the afternoon. Any thunderstorm or strong shower that
moves over a TAF site could produce IFR visibilities due to a high
level of low level moisture. Fog development is possible
overnight, and have included mention in KEET, KANB, and KTCL for
now. Confidence is low in intensity of fog, so left MVFR
visibilities for now to show the trend. Scattered convection is
expected again on Sunday.

Note: AMD NOT SKED at KASN due to missing ceilings.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the period, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. No high
wind or low humidity impacts are expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  94  72  94 /  10  40  20  50
Anniston    72  91  74  93 /  20  50  30  50
Birmingham  74  94  75  93 /  20  40  20  50
Tuscaloosa  75  92  75  94 /  20  50  20  50
Calera      73  94  75  93 /  20  50  20  50
Auburn      73  90  75  91 /  60  70  40  50
Montgomery  75  93  74  93 /  60  70  30  50
Troy        74  93  73  92 /  60  80  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...24