![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
823 FXUS64 KBMX 070851 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 351 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024 A weak front associated with a weak surface low is right along the I-20 corridor this morning. At the same time Beryl is to our southwest. Beryl is moving toward the northwest right now. There will be a convergence zone just north of the outer band subsidence zone that will merge with the frontal zone this afternoon. Both the ARW and FV3 CAMs are picking up on this area, but have different placements. The consensus with the rest of the models is across out southern half of the area. Therefore will stay with likely rain chances across the south and isolated to scattered across the north. As for the excessive heat, it looks like the areas to see the heat advisory criteria of 105 plus will be in much of the same area as yesterday, so will continue the heat advisory as advertised, with readings of 105 to 108. Much of the precipitation will decrease after 6z tonight with only an isolated shower possible overnight. On Monday, we will once again be in a favorable pattern for wet conditions, however the outer subsidence zone of Beryl may have a bigger impact that the global models are supporting. There are some discrepancies amongst models and guidance. We will be in more of a southerly flow on Monday, so hit and miss showers/storms are certainly not of the picture, but will we get the likely/definite coverage that guidance is showing. For now will stay with the persistence forecast as the airmass does not really change, but will not be surprised if guidance decreases over the next few runs. As for temperatures, we will be close to heat advisory criteria again. If we have less rain then temperatures may be a degree or two warmer and easily meet criteria. Will revisit this during the afternoon update or in 24 hours from now. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024 Beryl remains on track to impact areas to our west on Tuesday after moving inland from the Texas Gulf Coast. This will coincide with a moisture-rich environment spanning the entire Deep South, though guidance has recently trended somewhat lower with PWs. Nonetheless, we should still see a good scattering of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday given height falls associated with Beryl to our west, and there will be mesoscale considerations that could result in locally higher/lesser coverage of convection. The latest NHC forecast (and associated guidance) depicts a more transient evolution of Beryl across the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday as its circulation merges with a trough to the north. It now appears to be well on its way toward the Ohio Valley by Wednesday as an open wave trough aloft with post tropical cyclone characteristics. As such, impacts to Central AL appear to be little to none at this time, but we`ll monitor for any potential changes since we`re on the eastern side of the circulation where it`s not uncommon to see at least isolated flooding & tornado threats establish. Latest forecasts from SPC is currently focused on areas to our northwest & north where guidance is now placing the best supportive kinematic parameters. After Beryl moves off to our north Tuesday night into Wednesday, a drier, more stable air mass is forecast to move into much of the Tennessee Valley along with a slight reduction in temperatures - it`s a cold front. Thus, we`ll return to a more routine summer forecast that will continue through the end of the period. Unfortunately PoPs will remain on the lower side until a more substantial increase in moisture can occur, and this may take several days according to latest medium range. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024 While the extent of the low clouds and patchy will not be as widespread as this time 24 hours ago, we are going to have some. In fact ANB and most likely ASN are already LIFR/IFR. Added in some tempo MVFR across the north and predominant in MGM. After 14 to 15z those should burn off and then a close repeat to Saturday with scattered to numerous showers and storms in the afternoon. Light winds the whole period. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and humid conditions will continue through the period, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. No high wind or low humidity impacts are expected through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 71 94 72 / 30 30 60 20 Anniston 92 74 92 75 / 50 40 60 20 Birmingham 93 74 94 75 / 40 30 60 20 Tuscaloosa 93 74 93 75 / 40 30 60 20 Calera 93 74 93 75 / 50 40 60 20 Auburn 91 74 91 75 / 70 50 70 20 Montgomery 94 74 93 74 / 70 50 70 20 Troy 94 72 93 73 / 70 50 70 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Dallas-Elmore-Lee- Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....40/Sizemore AVIATION...16